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On Wednesday, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum continued to fall under pressure, with the highest 16145 yuan / ton and the lowest 15860 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 15955 yuan / ton, down 0.
72% from the previous trading day's close; LME aluminum rebounded slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum reported 2008.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
48%
per day.
Market focus: (1) Negotiations on stimulus in the United States continue after a $908 billion proposal by bipartisan lawmakers encountered the same obstacles
as in previous negotiations.
(2) It is reported that the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Barnier said that there is very little hope of reaching an agreement with the UK by the end of the year
.
(3) SMM reported that China's electrolytic aluminum output in November was 3.
163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.
77%; The output in December is expected to be 3.
27 million tons, an increase of 7.
71%
month-on-month.
(4) From December 7 to 31 in Henan Province, enterprises with performance ratings of A and B implemented production restrictions, C and D enterprises implemented production suspension Chile, and local aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises faced production stoppages, which are expected to affect production capacity of 2.
89 million tons for a total of 24 days, and are expected to affect demand of 79,000 tons
.
Spot analysis: On December 9, spot A00 aluminum reported 16390-16430 yuan / ton, the average price was 16410 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is relatively abundant, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, the downstream demand performance is not good, and the transaction activity is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 83,647 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 374 tons, down 17 consecutive days; On December 8, LME aluminum stocks were 1343950 tons, down 6,625 tons per day, down 15 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 73450 lots, with a daily increase of 1223 lots, short positions of 92739 lots, a daily increase of 2026 lots, a net short position of 19289 lots, a daily increase of 803 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On December 8, Shanghai aluminum 2101 continued to fall
under pressure.
The uncertainty of the US stimulus package, coupled with the high risk of a no-deal Brexit, made the dollar index stop falling and stabilize.
Serious pollution weather has recently occurred in Henan and other places, resulting in local aluminum companies facing production cuts and production restrictions, and consumption in the downstream market has weakened; At the same time, the production profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, which stimulates the production capacity in the medium and long term; Coupled with the recent expansion of import arbitrage, the inflow of overseas goods is expected to increase, and the pressure on aluminum prices will increase
.
Technically, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell below 10,000, paying attention to the support of the 20-day moving average, and it is expected to be weakly adjusted
in the short term.
