The main force of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, and the short-term continued weakness

Market focus: (1) The US non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 145,000 after the December seasonally adjustment, falling to a new low since May 2019, and an increase of 164,000
is expected.
(2) Chinalco loaded the first batch of 55,000 tons
of bauxite from the Bofa mine in Guinea for the first time.
(3) Bahrain Aluminum's aluminum production in 2019 set a new record of more than 1.
36 million tons, reaching 1365005 tons, and aluminum production in 2018 was 1011101 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35%.

Spot analysis: On January 13, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14380-14420 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14400 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton
per day.
SMM reported that the morning holders shipped positively, and the middlemen received the goods fairly, but due to the lack of a large account to participate, the trading between the two sides was more general, because the transaction has never shown heat, the holders expect that the follow-up consumption is difficult to improve and gradually tend to sell at a lower price, and a small amount of goods are stocked downstream in the day, because they gradually enter the holiday cycle, and the amount of goods received is obviously inferior
to the previous two weeks.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 49,140 tons, an increase of 2,975 tons per day; On January 10, LME aluminum stocks were 1410675 tons, a daily decrease of 14,900 tons, a 14-day
decline.
In the week ended January 10, nickel inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 193899 tons, a weekly increase of 5,872 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract are 75133 lots, a daily increase of 1134 lots, short positions are 82414 lots, a daily increase of 1564 lots, net short positions are 7281 lots, a daily increase of 430 lots, long and short are increased, and net space increases
.

On January 13, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2003 fell
sharply.
The US non-farm payrolls data was unexpectedly less than expected, the US dollar index was under pressure, China and the United States will sign the first phase of the trade agreement on the 15th, while domestic alumina production continued to decline and port inventories fell, prices stabilized, supporting aluminum prices, but the high profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production stimulated manufacturers to accelerate the resumption of production, superimposed on the downstream demand at the end of the year to weaken, the recent Shanghai aluminum inventory has a recovery trend, the pressure on aluminum prices is greater
。 In terms of spot, the morning carrier shipments are active, and the middlemen receive the goods fairly, but due to the lack of a large account to participate, the trading of the two sides is more general, and a small amount of goods are prepared in the downstream day, because they gradually enter the holiday cycle, and the receiving volume is obviously inferior
to the previous two weeks.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai aluminum is dead, and the mainstream position is more short-term increase, and it is expected that the short-term will continue to be weak
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2003 contract can be short around 13970 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14030 yuan / ton
.