The main force of Shanghai aluminum first suppressed and then rose, and the short-term shock was weak

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
jobless claims for the week ended Dec.
28 fell by 2,000 to 222,000 seasonally adjusted versus 225,000
expected.
(2) Metro bauxite exceeded 3.
5 million tons in 2019 and is expected to produce 4 million tons
annually in 2020.
(3) In November, China's aluminum alloy wheel exports amounted to 307 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 30.
2%, and the export quantity was 7.
06 million (calculated by 10kg/only), a year-on-year decrease of 26.
6%; From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 3.
702 billion US dollars, down 15.
4% year-on-year, and the number of exports was 82.
69 million, down 8.
4%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On January 3, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14540-14580 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14560 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market circulation source is relatively tight, and there are not many brands, the relative circulation of larger brands such as Tianshan, Lanjiang, etc.
compared with Qiya, Yulin and other brands The price is around 20 yuan / ton, the cargo holder shipment is acceptable, the middleman receives the goods more actively, the two sides are more active, but the actual transaction is general
.
Due to the proximity of the weekend, there is a small amount of stock downstream, and the overall transaction in East China is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 40,350 tons on Friday, an increase of 800 tons per day; On January 2, LME aluminum stocks were 1473025 tons, a daily decrease of 2,000 tons, and a decline of 8 consecutive days
.
In the week ended January 3, aluminum inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 188027 tons, a weekly increase of 2,900 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract were 68043 lots, minus 1808 lots per day, short positions were 84380 lots, daily minus 3691 lots, net short positions were 16337 lots, daily minus 1883 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On January 3, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 first fell and then rose
.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week, the dollar stopped falling and rebounded, while downstream demand turned weak, China's aluminum alloy wheel exports in November fell sharply year-on-year, electrolytic aluminum spot inventory in recent days was small, aluminum rod inventory rebounded, the pressure on aluminum prices is greater, but the easing of the Sino-US trade situation, and the Central Bank of China lowered the RRR, coupled with the decline in upstream alumina production price stabilized, the pressure on the raw material end has weakened, forming some support
for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the intraday market circulation source is relatively tight, and there are not many brands, the holders of goods are OK, the middlemen are more active in receiving goods, and the trading between the two sides is more active, but the actual transaction is average
.
Due to the approach of the weekend, there is a small amount of stock
downstream.
Technically, the main 2002 contract daily MACD green column increment of Shanghai aluminum pays attention to the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.