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On Tuesday, the main 2107 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated upward, with the highest 18680 yuan / ton, the lowest 18295 yuan / ton, closing at 18625 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan / ton from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fluctuated to the upside, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2410 / ton, up 0.
33%
from the previous session.
Market focus: (1) New York Fed President Williams: The economy has not improved enough to narrow stimulus
.
Inflation could rise to 3% this year and fall to nearly 2% in 2022; It is impossible to tell when the Fed can slow the pace of bond purchases; Upside risks to inflation are higher than expected; The market's reaction to last week's Fed meeting would not be described as a "tapering scare"; The market's reaction to the Fed's policy meeting was "quite dovish"; There is still a long way to go before the Fed taper its bond purchases
.
Spot analysis, spot A00 aluminum reported 18490-18530 yuan / ton, the average price was 18510 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan
daily.
The market has sufficient circulation and supply, the holders actively ship, and the receiver still has a bullish mood, but the spot trading atmosphere is better, and the overall transaction is acceptable
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 74,151 tons, down 325 tons from the previous trading day; LME stocks were 1623850 tonnes, an increase of 10,950 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2107 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 74797 lots, minus 6731 lots per day, short positions 73598 lots, minus 5879 hands per day, net long positions 1199 lots, long and short reduction, net short to net long
.
Market research: Fed Bullard said that the market expects the Fed to not raise interest rates when reducing QE; At the same time, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that although the epidemic has improved and the euro area economy is accelerating the recovery process, it is inseparable from monetary policy support, and the dollar plunged sharply overnight
.
Fundamentals, Yunnan's power rationing has not fully recovered, and if the import window continues to close, there is still a certain gap
in the balance of supply and demand.
At present, the social inventory fell below 900,000 tons, and the current monthly destocking is still more than 100,000 tons, and the market pays attention to the specific amount of storage at the end of the month, when the expected and realistic game will have a certain impact
on the price.
In addition, the market is at the end of the consumption season, and the downstream consumer market has shown some signs of
weakening.
