The main force of Shanghai aluminum has rebounded sharply, and there are no bright spots in downstream receipts

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
nonfarm payrolls surged by 266,000 in November, much higher than the expected 186,000, with part of the contribution coming from GM workers returning to work
.
(2) China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November were 452,000 tons, down 15.
7% year-on-year, an increase of 21,000 tons from October, and a cumulative export of 5.
252 million tons from January to November, down 0.
45%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On December 9, spot A00 aluminum reported 14040-14080 yuan / ton, the average price was 14060 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton
per day.
With the rise in aluminum prices, some holders are optimistic about the convergence of shipments in the future market, and most of the holders have significantly increased their enthusiasm for shipments at high prices, but the enthusiasm of middlemen receiving goods after 11:00 has declined, and the actual trading is not as good as in the
morning.
Downstream today's receipt of goods is flat and there are no bright spots, mainly normal delivery
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 58,946 tons, a daily decrease of 1,001 tons, a drop of 9 consecutive days; On December 6, LME aluminum stocks were 1,284,300 tons, a daily decrease of 975 tons
.
As of the week of December 6, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 233896 tons, a weekly decrease of 11,928 tons, a decline of three consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract were 61624 lots, minus 2186 lots per day, short positions were 70163 lots, daily minus 1264 lots, net short positions were 8539 lots, daily increase of 922 lots, long and short were reduced, and net short increased
.

Market research and judgment: On December 9, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2001 rebounded
sharply.
China has taken greater goodwill and positive measures in trade, after China and the United States agreed to cancel tariffs in stages as the agreement progressed, the Sino-US trade situation is optimistic, while the current electrolytic aluminum inventory still continues to dematerialize, the decline is more than expected, the aluminum price is positive, but the US economic data is strong, the dollar is rising, while the upstream alumina inventory rose and the price weakened, electrolytic aluminum production rebounded in November, while downstream aluminum rod production declined, production rose demand was not good, not conducive to aluminum inventory decomposition, pressure on aluminum prices increased
。 In terms of spot, traders trading is more general, buyers and sellers in the morning transaction is acceptable, with the rise of aluminum prices, some holders are optimistic about the convergence of future market shipments, downstream goods are flat and there are no bright spots, mainly normal goods
.
Technically, the main 2001 contract position of Shanghai aluminum declined, and the mainstream short position reduction was large, and the short-term shock was expected to be strong
.