The main force of Shanghai aluminum is generally volatile and upward, and the space above may be limited

At the macro level, in August, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.
6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.
8 percentage points faster than that in July, indicating a steady recovery
in the economy.

In terms of supply, Yunnan Shenhuo and Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum have been put into operation, and production may be released in September, coupled with the early production and resumption of production enterprises to continue to promote the process of resumption of production, it is expected that the output will be released in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually increase
.

In terms of demand, orders for automobiles, construction, electronics, packaging and other aspects have improved to a certain extent, and the overall downstream remains optimistic about orders in September, but the pace of demand recovery in the peak season has slowed
down significantly.

Overall, due to the acceleration of the pace of supply-side release and the slowdown of the recovery rhythm of the demand-side peak season, the change in the rhythm of supply and demand makes the upward movement of aluminum prices gradually weaken over time, and the space above the peak season aluminum prices may be limited
.
Therefore, it is recommended to change the way of thinking, follow up the changes in aluminum ingot inventory in a timely manner, and strategically, change the medium-term thinking to short treatment
.