The main force of Shanghai aluminum is weak and the downside space is relatively limited

Market focus: (1) Shanxi implements autumn and winter peak shifting production
for enterprises in key gas-related industries such as steel, coking and nonferrous metals (electrolytic aluminum, alumina).
The peak shift production period is from November 1, 2021 to March 31
, 2022.
The first phase is from November 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021; Phase 2: January 1, 2022 – March 31
, 2022.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 20840-20880 yuan / ton, the average price was 20860 yuan / ton, down 790 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders actively adjusted the price and shipment, the receiver was bearish on a small amount of purchase, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was average, and the overall transaction activity was average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 131358 tons, daily increase of 823 tons; LME aluminum stocks 1064425 tons, down 14,100 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2112 contract held 130271 lots, minus 2401 lots per day, short positions 138240 lots, daily increase of 8085 lots, net short positions of 7969 lots, daily increase of 6179 lots, long reduction, short and net short increase
.

Market research: Powell's recent speech has almost announced that the countdown to the process of tapering asset purchases has begun, and the market is widely expected to announce the start of the reduction at the end of the policy meeting on November 2-3; Coupled with China's policies to curb excessive speculative speculation, market risk sentiment continues to be subdued
.
At the same time, the government guarantees power supply coal, the cost support logic of Shanghai aluminum weakens and aluminum ingots continue to accumulate, and the market is worried about aluminum market demand, which has triggered a continuous correction
in aluminum prices.
However, at present, aluminum prices have entered the loss range of some aluminum plants, and some regions have implemented peak shifts, and the long-term restrictions on the supply side may make the downward space for aluminum prices to continue to be limited
.