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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > The main force of Shanghai aluminum low opening pullback short-term or wide range oscillation

    The main force of Shanghai aluminum low opening pullback short-term or wide range oscillation

    • Last Update: 2022-12-23
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    On Thursday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened low, the highest 20355 yuan / ton, the lowest 19680 yuan / ton, and the close at 19780 yuan, down 1.
    62% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum fell in volatility, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2663 / ton, down 0.
    86%
    from the previous trading day.

    Shanghai aluminum

    Market focus: (1) The Federal Reserve announced the November Monetary Policy Committee decision, while maintaining the policy rate unchanged, officially start the Taper (debt reduction) process as expected by the market, and accelerate the pace of debt reduction in December, which will reduce the pace
    of bond purchases by $15 billion per month.
    (2) The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 571,000 in October, and it is estimated that it will increase by 400,000, the highest since
    June.
    (3) As of November 4, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
    012 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from this Monday (November 1), and 659,000 tons
    in the same period last year.

    Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19930-19970 yuan / ton, the average price was 19950 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan
    from the previous trading day.
    The cargo holder actively clears the goods at a low price, the receiver replenishes the goods at the low, the transaction is not good, and the transaction is average
    .

    Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 140413 tons, daily increase of 2070 tons; LME aluminium stocks 1019825 tons, a daily decrease of 8,500 tons
    .
    Main positions: the top 20 longs of the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 138760 lots, an increase of 2504 hands per day, short positions 147858 lots, a daily increase of 15323 lots, a net short position of 9098 lots, net long to net short, long and short increased
    .

    Market research and judgment: The Fed officially announced the reduction of bond purchases as scheduled, the overall interest rate decision did not exceed expectations, and the US dollar closed slightly lower
    .
    However, due to the constant meeting of the State Council to raise issues such as the rise in commodities, Jinshaanmeng cracked down on illegal coal storage sites, domestic policy pressure did not abate, and the market continued to be cautious.

    Fundamentals, the electricity cost of aluminum enterprises is still at a high level, superimposed alumina prices continue to rise, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum is still supported; The demand side has been boosted by the deep downward revision of aluminum prices, and the downstream operating rate has recently rebounded
    .
    However, the current aluminum ingots are still accumulating, and it will take time for the market sentiment to stabilize, and short-term aluminum prices or wide fluctuations are dominant
    .
    Technically, the AL2112 contract hourly MACD indicator shows a stable green column, focusing on the 19250 line of support
    .

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