The main force of Shanghai aluminum opened high and went low, and the recovery of demand was still weak

Market focus: (1) The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in June was 57.
1, the highest since February, higher than the previous value of 45.
4 and the expected value
of 50.
(2) Japan's three major ports saw aluminum inventories at Japan's three major ports rise about 9.
5 percent to 338,500 tons at the end of May from 309,000 tons
in April, Japan's Marubeni Corporation said on Tuesday.
(3) China's ninth batch of restricted category publicity in 2020, of which the approved import volume of aluminum scrap and scrap is 209,660 tons, and a total of 693659 tons of import quotas have been issued so far this year
.

Spot analysis: On July 7, spot A00 aluminum reported 14400-14440 yuan / ton, the average price was 14420 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
per day.
A large household received goods normally within the day, but the actual transaction was still dominated by Shanghai sources, the holders actively shipped, but the price was relatively strong, the willingness to adjust the price was not high, the enthusiasm of the middleman to receive the goods was general, the transaction between the two sides was slightly deadlocked, and some traders gave feedback, because the downstream processing plant preferred brands to buy goods is more out of stock, in the context of the recent high aluminum prices, the downstream recent willingness to buy goods is not obvious, and there are not many
goods received within the day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 88,357 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 975 tons; On July 6, LME aluminum stocks were 1624775 tons, down 4,500 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract are 99008 lots, minus 2248 lots, short positions are 116418 lots, daily minus 2331 lots, net short positions are 17410 lots, daily minus 83 lots, long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On July 7, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 opened high and low
.
Under the impact of the overseas epidemic, the recovery of demand is still weak, the expansion of the Shanghai ratio has led to the further expansion of the import profit window, the subsequent overseas source imports are expected to increase, and aluminum exports will also be suppressed, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

However, the recent release of economic data has been strong, boosting market optimism; And the performance of domestic demand is still down, and Shanghai aluminum inventories show a trend of decomposition, which supports aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, a large household receives goods normally within the day, and the holder actively ships the goods, but the price is relatively strong, the enthusiasm of the middleman to receive the goods is general, and the willingness to buy goods downstream in the near future is not obvious
.
Technically, the mainstream position of Shanghai's main 2008 contract increased and decreased more, focusing on the support of the 14,000 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can be long around 14000-14200 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 60 yuan / ton
each.