The main force of Shanghai aluminum opens high and goes high, and it is expected that the market will run strongly

Market focus: (1) US retail sales rose 5.
3% month-on-month in January, with significant growth across all major categories, down 1% in the previous month and up 1.
1%
expected.
(2) U.
S.
manufacturing output rose 1% month-on-month in January, 0.
9% in December and 0.
7% expected, a better-than-expected increase and a fourth consecutive month of gain
.
(3) WBMS data, the global primary aluminum market was oversupplied by 1.
546 million tons from January to December 2020, and 2.
081 million tons
from January to November.

Spot analysis: On February 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16190-16230 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16210 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 440 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders were slightly hesitant to sell, the enthusiasm for receiving goods was average, and the transaction was weak.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 106616 tons on Thursday, an increase of 177 tons per day; On February 17, LME aluminum stocks were 1365375 tons, down 7,100 tons per day, down for 10 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 106165 lots, an increase of 7319 lots per day, a daily increase of 120802 lots, a daily increase of 10383 lots, a net short position of 14637 lots, a daily increase of 3064 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On February 18, Shanghai aluminum 2104 opened high and went
high.
The outlook for fiscal stimulus in the United States, coupled with the improvement of the epidemic due to vaccination measures, and the optimism of the US economic recovery, also pushed the dollar index to stop falling and recover
.
Upstream domestic alumina prices rebounded at the end of the year, due to the successive launch of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the decline in inventories; Recently, domestic and foreign aluminum inventories have remained stable, of which domestic inventories have rebounded slightly, but the overall level is still at a historically low level; And the demand outlook for downstream automotive and other industries is optimistic, with the gradual development of China's economic activities after the holiday, and the improvement of overseas epidemic driven by the recovery of demand, it is expected to support the strong operation
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2104 contract increase of Shanghai aluminum broke through the previous high, and the daily MACD red column increment is expected to run strongly in the future
.