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On Monday, the main 2110 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, with the highest 23895 yuan / ton, the lowest 22725 yuan / ton, and the close at 23610 yuan / ton, up 4.
38% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2958 / ton, up 1.
04%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) At the Harbor Aluminum Summit held in Chicago from September 8 to 10, local time, many participants said that supply shortages will continue to plague the industry for most of next year, and some participants even expect it may take up to five years to solve supply problems
.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 23400-23440 yuan / ton, the average price was 23420 yuan / ton, up 770 yuan
daily.
The bullish sentiment of the holders is high, and they actively ship, while the receiver purchases at a low price, and the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 94,568 tons, with a daily increase of 14,173 tons; LME stocks were 1309450 tonnes, down 8,275 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions in the main 2110 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 131374 lots, minus 24702 lots per day, short positions 149980 lots, minus 27852 lots per day, net short positions 18606 lots, daily minus 2218 lots, long and short and net short both reduced
.
Market analysis: The current uncertainty in the Fed's tapering schedule of quantitative easing has led most investors to take a wait-and-see attitude, focusing on Tuesday's US CPI data and Thursday's US retail sales data
.
Recently, affected by factors such as dual control of energy consumption and international events, the supply of raw materials such as bauxite and thermal coal has continued to be tight, prices are running firmly, and supply disturbances continue to form strong futures price support
.
However, the latest data show that domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks have accumulated slightly, mainly because of the general consumption performance under high aluminum prices, and pay attention to the sustainability of
accumulation.
In the short term, fundamentals continue to support the center of aluminum prices, and aluminum prices may run
strongly.
