The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and the short-term trend was strong

Market focus: (1) The National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's primary aluminum production in September was 3.
08 million tons, down 2.
4% from 3.
155 million tons in August and down 2.
1%
year-on-year 。 (2) Yunnan Province issued a draft for comments on the implementation of eliminating backward and promoting the withdrawal of low-end and inefficient production capacity, resolutely eliminating backward production capacity, focusing on iron and steel (steelmaking, ironmaking, ferroalloy), building materials (cement clinker, flat glass, grinding stations, lime kilns), petrochemical industry (coke, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus, caustic soda), non-ferrous metals (electrolytic aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, tin smelting) and other industries, using comprehensive standards to accelerate the withdrawal
of backward production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations 。 (3) As of October 18, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 941,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from October 14 (910,000 tons
).

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 24080-24120 yuan / ton, the average price was 24100 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan
from the previous trading day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 121132 tons, an increase of 826 tons per day; LME stocks were 1111525 tonnes, down 6,800 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions in the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 105362 lots, a daily decrease of 9306 lots, a short position of 117732 lots, a daily decrease of 6313 lots, a net short position of 12370 lots, a daily increase of 1095 lots, a long and short reduction, a net short increase
.

Market research and judgment: Domestically, the dual control of energy consumption continued to make efforts, China's aluminum production fell for the fifth consecutive month in September, Yunnan Province issued a draft for comments on the implementation of the elimination of backward and the promotion of low-end inefficient production capacity withdrawal, resolutely eliminated backward production capacity, which involves the electrolytic aluminum industry, once again boosted the Shanghai aluminum market, superimposed on the external aluminum performance is relatively strong, overseas demand performance is good, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, the short-term climbing inventory and downstream operating rate have continued to decline, causing the market to worry about weakening consumption, aluminum prices are under pressure above, and short-term aluminum prices or shocks are mainly
strong.
It is necessary to pay attention to the continuity and volume of accumulation and the change
in the pace of consumption.
Technically, the AL2111 contract 1-hour MACD indicator shows a red bar expansion with a strong
short-term trend.