The main force of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down and demand slowed down significantly in the off-season

Market focus: (1) National Bureau of Statistics: The efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to recover steadily in May, but the imbalance of corporate profits was more prominent, and the foundation for recovery was not yet solid
.
First, affected by factors such as rising commodity prices, the new profits of industrial enterprises are mainly concentrated in the upstream mining and raw material manufacturing industries, and the cost pressure of the downstream industries is increasing
.
Second, the profit growth rate of small and micro enterprises is lower than that of large and medium-sized enterprises, and the profit growth rate of private enterprises is lower than the average
level of industries above designated size.
(2) According to the release of customs data, China's aluminum profile exports in May 2021 were 77,900 tons, an increase of 1.
64% month-on-month and 18.
67% year-on-year, of which exports to the EU were 04,400 tons, a decrease of 16.
98% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 50.
56%.

Spot analysis: spot A00 aluminum reported 18810-18850 yuan / ton, the average price was 18830 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan
per day.
Holders have reduced prices and sold goods, receiving parties are waiting to buy on demand, the market transaction is not good, and the transaction activity is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 73,768 tons, down 50 tons from the previous trading day; LME stocks were 1596450 tonnes, down 12,650 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2108 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 145025 lots, a daily decrease of 1951 lots, a short position of 140924 lots, a daily increase of 549 lots, a net long position of 4101 lots, a daily decrease of 1270 lots
.
Long and net long, short increase
.

Market research: On the macro front, the Fed chairman came forward to reassure the market, saying that he would not "preemptively" raise interest rates
because he was worried about the possibility of high inflation.
On the other hand, the US core PCE growth rate in May released on Friday was lower than market expectations, which eased inflation concerns to some extent and put pressure
on the dollar.
In addition, the news that Russia plans to impose aluminum export tariffs continues to ferment, and the price
of aluminum is more positive.
However, due to the continuous rise in aluminum prices and the increase in market willingness to ship, some downstream processing companies said that orders in July and August were not as good as in May, reflecting signs of a slight weakening of consumption
.
China has entered the off-season, and demand has slowed down significantly
.
Operationally, the 18500-19100 range is high and low, and the stop loss is 150 points
.