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Trade Service
LME copper fluctuated on Thursday, as of 15:15 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $6139 / ton, down 0.
09%
on the day.
The upward movement of the main 2002 contract of Shanghai copper encountered obstacles, with the highest 49360 yuan / ton and the lowest 48950 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 49030 yuan / ton, up 0.
04% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 22.
20 lots, an increase of 1,796 lots per day, and the position was 281,000 lots, a daily decrease of 3,884 lots
.
The basis expanded to -125 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai copper in 2001-2002 widened to -120 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but Powell said that the Fed will not raise interest rates
unless it sees inflation continue to rise sharply.
(2) A large copper clad laminate manufacturer issued a price increase notice, the price increase was due to the long-term high level of copper clad laminate raw materials, and the high production cost of the factory
.
Spot analysis: On December 12, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 48880-48930 yuan / ton, the average price was 48905 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 420 yuan / ton
.
It is similar to the quotation the next afternoon, but the market is afraid of heights to stop and wait and see, holders are forced to slightly lower their quotations, downstream fear of heights is strong, buying interest is suppressed, it is difficult to have profit margins, and trade speculation willingness continues to be frustrated
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 61,425 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 3,517 tons; On December 11, LME copper stocks were 181,700 tons, down 3,500 tons per day, and fell for 14 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2002 contracts were 91282 lots, a daily increase of 751 lots, short positions of 99741 lots, a daily decrease of 262 lots, a net short position of 8459 lots, a daily decrease of 1013 lots, more short increases, and a decrease
in net space.
Market research and judgment: On December 12, the upward movement of Shanghai copper's main force in 2002 was blocked
.
The deadline for the implementation of a new round of tariffs in the United States is approaching, the Sino-US trade situation is still uncertain, market concerns are heating up, limiting the upward momentum of copper prices, but the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged but there is a dovish voice, the dollar has fallen sharply, and the recent copper inventory continues to decline, this year's inventory level is overall lower than last year, the delocalization range is more than expected, downstream automobile production and sales have rebounded, good demand side improvement, copper prices have been supported
。 In terms of spot, it is similar to the next afternoon's quotation, but the market is afraid of heights and stops and waits, holders are forced to slightly lower their quotations, downstream fear of heights is strong, buying interest is suppressed, it is difficult to have profit margins, and trade speculation willingness continues to be frustrated
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper main 2002 contract is longer in the upper shadow, the daily MACD red column increment, and the short-term shock is expected to rise
slightly.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2002 contract can be long around 48900 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 48750 yuan / ton
.
