The main force of Shanghai copper fell and shocked, facing technical pullback pressure

Market focus: (1) Statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of 8:45 Beijing time on July 14, the number of confirmed new crown cases in the world exceeded 13.
06 million, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 571,000
.
(2) Copper concentrate imports in June were 1.
594 million tons, an increase of 8.
8% year-on-year, a decrease of 5.
7% month-on-month, and 1.
69 million tons in May; The import of unwrought copper and copper products in June was 656,400 tons, an increase of 100% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month, and the cumulative import from January to June was 2.
841 million tons
.

Spot analysis: On July 14, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 52050-52170 yuan / ton, with an average price of 52110 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 890 yuan / ton
.
Near the delivery month, speculators favor low-priced sources, the market stops and watches, buying less, after 10:30, the price difference changes sharply in the next month, the spread returns to positive, low-priced sources are favored by the market to buy positively, wet copper is abundant, consumption has not improved significantly, and holders are enthusiastic
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 52,574 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 5,148 tons per day; On July 13, LME copper stocks were 176,350 tons, a daily decrease of 4,725 tons, and a drop of 19 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts were 75840 lots, a daily increase of 2627 lots, short positions were 71958 lots, a daily increase of 2777 lots, a net long position of 3882 lots, a daily decrease of 150 lots, both long and short increases, and net long decreased
.

The global coronavirus epidemic continues to spread, and market risk sentiment is suppressed; At the same time, the downstream entered the traditional off-season, demand weakened, and Shanghai copper inventories rebounded; In addition, the spread of refined scrap prices has widened, stimulating the demand for copper scrap imports to replace refined copper, and limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
However, the epidemic in South America has fermented, and the Centinela copper mine in Chile plans to strike, resulting in the tightening of copper mine supply expectations; The production cost of raw materials has increased, and the maintenance and production reduction of domestic smelters have increased; And the copper import window is closed, refined copper imports are suppressed, and the support for copper prices still exists
.
In terms of spot, near the delivery month, speculators favor low-priced sources, the market stops and waits, and there are fewer
buys.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2009 contract has reduced its position greatly, facing technical pullback pressure, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can operate in the range of 51600-53100 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton
each.