The main force of Shanghai copper fell sharply and is expected to adjust short-term shocks

Market focus: (1) The ISM manufacturing index in the United States was 56 in August, up from 54.
2
in July.
This is the highest level since January 2019, marking three consecutive months of growth
.
(2) Peruvian copper production fell 2.
2% year-on-year to 198796 tonnes in July, according to Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines, and said that Peruvian copper mining has almost "fully recovered"
from the impact of the epidemic.

Spot analysis: On September 2, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 51790-52060 yuan / ton, with an average price of 51925 yuan / ton, down 445 yuan / ton
per day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 58,482 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 478 tons; On September 1, LME copper stocks were 88,250 tons, down 1,100 tons per day, down for 14 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2010 contracts were 82399 lots, a daily decrease of 4197 lots, short positions were 76869 lots, a daily decrease of 5517 lots, a net long position of 5530 lots, a daily increase of 1320 lots, both long and short decreases, and net long increases
.

US manufacturing data for August was strong and better than expected, and the dollar index recovered from a low level; At the same time, the year-on-year decline in copper production in Chile and Peru in July continued to narrow, and copper export supply will gradually recover; In addition, downstream demand is still flat, so that copper prices lack upward momentum
.
However, the short-term recovery of copper ore is limited, the current copper ore processing fee TC remains low, and the support of raw material cost still exists; At the same time, London copper inventories fell to a new low in nearly 14 years, coupled with the arrival of the domestic peak season, demand is expected to pick up, which supports copper prices
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2010 contract volume reduction fell back, the mainstream short position reduction is large, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.