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On Monday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper fell sharply, with a maximum of 60,350 yuan / ton, a minimum of 58,630 yuan / ton, and a closing price of 58,670 yuan / ton, down 2.
90% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper continued to decline, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 7973 US dollars / ton, down 1.
38%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000 jobs in December, the first decline in eight months, and expected an increase of 71,000
.
The unemployment rate came in at 6.
7% in December vs 6.
8% expected vs 6.
7%
previously.
(2) Mysteel data, as of January 8, China's port copper concentrate port inventory was 553,000 tons, a weekly increase of 05,000 tons; at the same time, China's copper ore processing fee TC was 46.
9 US dollars / dry ton, down 1.
1 US dollars / dry ton per week, once again hitting a new low
since June 2012.
(3) China's spot inventory of electrolytic copper on January 8 was 166,800 tons, an increase of 05,700 tons
from January 4.
Spot analysis: On January 11, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 59360-59620 yuan / ton, with an average price of 59490 yuan / ton, a daily drop of 860 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the supply of goods is relatively loose, traders are cautious to receive goods, demand is weak, and trading has improved slightly
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 26,894 tons on Monday, down 749 tons per day, down for 6 consecutive days; On January 8, LME copper stocks were 102425 tonnes, down 1,900 tonnes
per day.
As of the week ended January 8, the previous period of Shanghai copper stocks reported 82,342 tons, down 4,337 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract were 62516 lots, minus 5988 lots per day, short positions were 68473 lots, daily minus 3170 lots, net short positions were 5957 lots, daily increase of 2818 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2103 opened high on January 11
.
The US non-farm payrolls data performed poorly, and the pressure of winter epidemic prevention and control increased, raising market concerns about the worsening epidemic, the US dollar index was boosted by risk aversion, and the market focused on the expectation of
additional stimulus plans in the United States.
Recently, the volume of copper mine arrivals has declined, domestic copper mine inventories have fallen to a low level, copper ore processing fees TC have continued to decline, and copper smelting costs are high; However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has greatly increased the import volume, and the price difference between refined waste has widened, and the substitution role will gradually increase; Downstream market demand performance is acceptable, and Shanghai copper inventories remain low, supporting copper prices
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2103 contract has reduced its position, and the mainstream long position reduction is large, and it is expected to adjust the short-term low
.
