The main force of Shanghai copper opened high and pulled back It is expected that the short-term shock is strong

Market focus: US retail sales 0.
4% m/m, 0.
2% expected, 0.
7% prior, stronger than expected; Core retail sales in August were 0% m/m vs 0.
1% expected vs.
1% prior, largely in line with expectations
.
On Saturday, a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's largest crude oil facility sparked heightened risk aversion
.
Unwrought copper flowing into China reached 404,000 mt in August, down 3.
8% from 42 tonnes in July and down 3.
8%
year-on-year, according to data released by China's customs.

Spot analysis: On September 16, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 47750-47830 yuan / ton, with an average price of 47790 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 400 yuan / ton
.
In the morning, the market quotation premium rose more synchronously with the plate, after the opening of the report, the market waited and stopped, the transaction was difficult to improve, the holder took the initiative to adjust the price, the current market is easy to rise and fall, inventory is at a low level, before the National Day market premium is high It is difficult to have a significant decline space, after the month will continue to be high premium
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 63,510 tons, an increase of 3,232 tons per day; LME copper stocks were 296625 tonnes on 13 September, down 3,125 tonnes
per day.
In the week ended September 12, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 152188 tons, down 9,871 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 1911 contract are 71841 lots, minus 2181 lots, short positions are 78400 lots, daily increase of 398 lots, net short positions are 6559 lots, daily increase of 2579 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On September 16, the main force of Shanghai copper opened high in 1911
.
China and the United States have exchanged goodwill in trade, market confidence has rebounded significantly, while downstream cable consumption has increased, demand has picked up, cathode copper inventories have also decreased significantly, copper prices have increased momentum, but geopolitical tensions have intensified, market risk aversion has heated up, upstream copper mine supply pattern is expected to improve, copper processing fee TC is expected to stabilize, putting pressure
on copper prices.
In terms of spot, the morning market quotation premium and the plate synchronous rise more, after the opening of the market wait-and-see, the transaction is difficult to improve, the holder of the initiative to adjust the price, the current market is easy to rise and fall, inventory is at a low level
.
Technically, the daily MACD red column of the main 1911 contract of Shanghai copper shortened, focusing on the support at the 47000 position below, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.