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On Thursday, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and low, with the highest 69310 yuan / ton and the lowest 68140 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 68260 yuan / ton, down 0.
19% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper shock adjustment, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $9380 / ton, up 0.
00%
per day.
Market focus: (1) US ADP data showed that private sector employment increased by 692,000, revised downward to 886,000 in May, and the median expectation of economists surveyed was an increase of 600,000
.
(2) Fed Governor Waller said that due to the strong recovery of the US economy, the timing of the reduction may be earlier than officials expected at the end of 2020, perhaps before the end of the year
.
(3) Chilean manufacturing output in May increased by 8.
9% year-on-year, but copper production fell 0.
4% year-on-year to 493,420 tons
.
Spot analysis: On July 1, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 68610-68720 yuan / ton, the average price was 68665 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 290 yuan / ton
.
The supply circulation is tight, the sentiment of the holders is high, the receiving party is cautious and wait-and-see, and the overall transaction performance is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 99,334 tons, a daily decrease of 978 tons, and a decrease of 12 consecutive days; LME copper stocks were 211975 tonnes, up 450 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: Shanghai copper main 2108 contract top 20 long positions 71873, -128, short positions 74398, +225, net positions -2525, -353, long short increase, net space increase
.
Market research and judgment: the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 692,000 in June, higher than market expectations, concerns about the Federal Reserve accelerating policy tightening heated, and the dollar index continued to rise; And the epidemic in the UK continues to spread, and the risk of the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant increases, triggering risk aversion
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continued to grow, and copper ore processing fees TC steadily rebounded, indicating that the tension in copper mines improved
.
However, the recent increase in refinery maintenance and the close import window have led to a decline
in copper production and imports.
At present, downstream demand is not performing well, mostly bargaining on demand, and the demand off-season is gradually approaching, the decline in domestic inventories has slowed down, while overseas inventories continue to grow, and copper prices have been adjusted
at a low level.
