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On Wednesday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai copper opened low, with the highest 70350 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 69500 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 70120 yuan / ton, down 0.
47% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper fluctuated low, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $9588 / ton, up 0.
29%
per day.
Market focus: (1) U.
S.
factory orders rose 1.
5% month-on-month in June, the 13th month of growth in the past 14 months, returning to the high point
of 2018.
(2) At 20:15 Beijing time on August 4, the number of ADP employment in the United States in July will be announced, and the market expects 683,000 and the previous value is 692,000
.
Spot analysis: On August 4, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 70100-70420 yuan / ton, the average price was 70260 yuan / ton, down 770 yuan / ton
daily.
Merchants actively shipped, downstream continued to be cautious and wait-and-see, the trading atmosphere was relatively quiet, and the overall transaction was flat
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in the day was 45,439 tons, a daily decrease of 577 tons, and a decrease of 36 consecutive days; LME copper stocks were 237025 tonnes, down 975 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: Shanghai copper main 2109 contract top 20 long positions 69346, -2359, short positions 75604, -3831, net positions -6258, +1472, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: the US domestic orders data in June exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry remained strong; However, Fed officials recently sent hawkish signals in support of the FOMC to reduce QE in September, hitting market risk sentiment and focusing on US employment data to provide guidance
.
The supply of upstream raw materials gradually recovered, and TC prices continued to recover, but the Escondida copper mine decided to strike, causing supply concerns
.
At present, domestic smelting enterprises are in a centralized maintenance period, but under the condition of high production profits, output is expected to continue to increase
.
Recently, the delocalization of domestic copper inventories has slowed down significantly, and the spot tension has eased, putting pressure
on copper prices.
