On Monday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai copper rebounded, with the highest 72460 yuan / ton and the lowest 70820 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 72110 yuan / ton, down 0.
39% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper recovered slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $9863.
5 / ton, up 1.
Market focus: (1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Fed should start reducing support for the economy by tapering asset purchases, but should not touch interest rate measures
(2) ICSG data, the global refined copper market had a supply gap of 31,000 tons in July 2021, and a supply gap of 98,000 tons
In the first seven months of this year, the global refined copper market was short of 138,000 tons, compared with 41,000 tons
in the same period last year.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 72320-72980 yuan / ton, the average price of 72650 yuan / ton, down 435 yuan / ton
Holders are low in their willingness to adjust prices, downstream demand is sluggish and cautious, trading is deadlocked, and the overall trading volume is average
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in the day was 11,560 tons, with a daily increase of 102 tons; LME copper stocks were 159,800 tons, down 1,750 tons per day, down 18 consecutive days
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2112 contract 97752, -451, short positions 110610, +2294, net positions +12858, -2745, long short increase, net short increase
Market research: the Fed's Powell said that it should start reducing asset purchases, in line with market expectations, but said that interest rate measures should not be touched, and the dollar index is running weakly; However, China's policy to curb excessive speculation and speculation, market risk sentiment has been suppressed
Fundamentals, upstream copper ore processing fees continue to rise, superimposed on the price of sulfuric acid is higher, domestic refiners are more willing to schedule production under high profits; However, domestic power cuts and tightening crude copper supply have limited refinery operating rates, resulting in a lack of growth
in refined copper production.
Downstream demand is still weak, and wait-and-see sentiment is strong
Domestic inventories remain low, while foreign inventories remain destocked, and there is support
below copper prices.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2112 contract 1-hour MACD gold cross, focus on the 20-day moving average support
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate lightly in the range of 71000-73000, with a stop loss of 700