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Trend review, on July 24, Shanghai aluminum 1809 oscillation is strong, opening 14290 yuan, intraday high 14385 yuan low 14265 yuan, the end of the close to 14335, up 160 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
In the first half of the year, domestic aluminum exports hit a four-year high, indicating that the demand for aluminum market is still strong, and Shanghai aluminum rose sharply during the day, but the aluminum market did not continue to be supported by favorable support, and the upside space of the future market may be limited
.
At the macro level, the proactive fiscal policy should be more active, and the prudent monetary policy should be loose and moderate
.
Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on July 23, making arrangements to better play the role of fiscal and financial policies, support the expansion of domestic demand and adjust the structure, and promote the development of the real economy; Determine measures
to promote effective investment around making up for shortcomings, increasing stamina, and benefiting people's livelihood.
Fiscal and monetary policy are more active, boosting confidence in the domestic market, and the news is positive
.
Spot market, recently, due to the relative strength difference between the spot market in East China and South China, the price difference between spot aluminum ingots in Guangdong and Shanghai has rapidly expanded to around 130 yuan / ton from the level of 60~90 yuan / ton in more than a month before, on the one hand, due to the small arrival in Guangdong, the willingness of local holders to ship is relatively low in East China, on the other hand, although consumption is now weak, but the downstream start of construction in Guangdong is still relatively the best
nationwide.
In terms of inventory, during the day, the aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 725,540 tons, down 209 tons
from the previous trading day.
As of July 24, LME aluminium stocks increased by 2,850 tonnes to 1212125 tonnes
.
Industry news, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it will strictly control the new production capacity of steel, coking, electrolytic aluminum, casting, cement and other key areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, the Fenwei Plain and other key areas, and will never allow the construction of new projects in violation of laws and regulations, strictly implement the production capacity replacement methods of steel, cement, flat glass and other industries, and never allow the implementation of the same replacement
of backward production capacity.
It is understood that similar measures have been introduced earlier in the Yangtze River Delta, Fenwei Plain and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, so the news is neutral
.
On the whole, many alumina plants in Shanxi stopped production and maintenance and flexible production, and alumina prices stopped falling and rebounded, which was good for aluminum prices
.
Market sentiment improved, and the dollar retreated from its highs, which was positive for non-ferrous metals
.
Technically, the daily K-line is under pressure on the 40-day moving average, the MACD indicator red column is enlarged, and it is expected that the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1809 will continue to be strong in the short term, and the operating range is 14000-14500, for reference
only.
