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LME copper extended its gains on Tuesday, with 3-month London copper trading at $6,005 / tonne as of 15:00 Beijing time, up 0.
60%
on a daily basis.
The Shanghai copper main 2008 contract continued to rise, with the highest 48800 yuan / ton, the lowest 48270 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 48790 yuan / ton, up 0.
85% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 105873 lots, with a daily increase of 4571 lots; The position was 124357 lots, an increase of 3993 lots
per day.
basis 120 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper in 2008-2009 was 120 yuan / ton
.
Market Focus: (1) The U.
S.
Department of Commerce indicated that it has revoked special and relevant treatment for Hong Kong, including the suspension of export license exemptions, and is conducting an ongoing and differential treatment assessment
.
(2) Chile's Codelco closed its Chuquicamata smelter and refinery after a third worker of 40,000 this week to prevent the further spread
of coronavirus pneumonia among employees.
Spot analysis: On June 30, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 48840-48980 yuan / ton, the average price was 48910 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 140 yuan / ton
.
On the last day of the end of the month, most of the downstream waited for the change of month to enter the market after making the transaction difficult, superimposed on the increase in the source of imported copper, the strong willingness of holders to exchange cash, and the weak willingness to receive goods made the premium fall
rapidly.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 36,763 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 346 tons; On June 29, LME copper stocks were 219,600 tons, down 2,075 tons per day, down for nine consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2008 contract are 78096 lots, a daily increase of 2881 lots, short positions are 83149 lots, a daily increase of 809 lots, a net short position of 5053 lots, a daily decrease of 2072 lots, long and short increases, and net space decreases
.
Market research and judgment: On June 30, Shanghai copper 2008 volatility continued to rise
.
The announcement by the United States of the cancellation of Hong Kong's special treatment, coupled with the second outbreak of the new crown epidemic, has increased risk aversion in the market, boosted the US dollar index, and put pressure
on copper prices.
However, the supply of upstream copper mines is tightening, South American copper mine production has been disrupted by the epidemic again, and the upward shift in smelting costs has suppressed refined copper production; Moreover, the operating rate of domestic downstream copper enterprises remained stable, and the demand performance was stable, driving the continued dematerialization of Shanghai copper inventories, and copper prices could move strongly
.
In terms of spot, most downstream waiting for the change of month to enter the market makes the transaction difficult, coupled with the increase in the source of imported copper, the strong willingness of holders to exchange cash, and the weak willingness to receive goods makes the premium fall
rapidly.
Technically, the mainstream bulls of the Shanghai Copper 2008 contract increased their positions and are expected to test the 49,000 mark, and the short-term volatility is expected to be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can be long at 48,500 yuan / ton at a pullback, and the stop loss is 48,300 yuan / ton
.