The main shock of Liansu is higher, and the subsequent upside may be limited

News: Lanzhou Petrochemical's 240,000 tons/year ethylene plant capacity recovery project has achieved CCCC
.

The overall development plan of Zhoushan green petrochemical base has been adjusted
.
The scale of the base is planned to be adjusted from "40 million tons/year of oil refining, 2.
8 million tons/year of ethylene, 8 million tons/year of paraxylene" to "40 million tons/year of oil refining, 4.
2 million tons/year of ethylene, 8.
8 million tons/year of paraxylene"
.

Last week, agricultural film enterprises started normally, with the overall operating rate at 39.
3%, +2.
7%
week-on-week.
Approaching the Spring Festival, some agricultural film enterprises concentrated on production to catch up with orders a few years ago, and the start of work increased
slightly.
The operating rate of shed film enterprises this week was around 39.
1%, +3.
5%
week-on-week.
The operating rate of mulch film enterprises was 39.
9%, +1.
0% week-on-week, and agricultural film enterprises gradually began to take a holiday in the second half of the week, with a time of about one month
.
The overall operating rate of packaging film was 71.
8%, +1.
5%
week-on-week.
At present
, packaging film enterprises are in high-load production before the holiday.
Basically full capacity production
.
The operating rate of winding film enterprises is generally 6-7%, and the operating hours of individual small factories are low
.
The holiday
is expected to start this weekend.

Spot market: The domestic polyethylene market price fluctuated higher
.
The sales company's high-pressure price was partially raised, with a range of 50-150 yuan / ton
.
There are not many business resources, the offer part is moved up, there is a demand for stocking downstream, and the transaction atmosphere is acceptable
.
As of the noon close, the North China market adjusted 50-100 yuan / ton; East China market rose 50-100 yuan / ton; The South China market is temporarily stable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 1912 lots, +120 lots
intraday.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 179105 lots, +3239 lots, short positions are 256311 lots, +2107 lots, and the net position is -77206 lots, with a decrease
in net shorting.

Summary: Fundamentally, the average operating rate of polyethylene companies has fallen
from last week.
The total polyethylene production of domestic enterprises decreased
from last week.
The impact of PE equipment maintenance increased
slightly.
PE market supply is still expected to decrease
slightly this week.
The overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises was 39.
3%, +2.
7%
week-on-week.
The operating rate of shed film enterprises was about 39.
1%, +3.
5%
month-on-month.
The operating rate of mulch film enterprises was 39.
9%, +1.
0% week-on-week, and the overall operating rate of packaging film was 71.
8%, +1.
5%
week-on-week.
At present
, packaging film enterprises are in high-load production before the holiday.
However, since the second half of this week, downstream companies have stopped work for the holiday, demand may weaken, and factory inventory has accumulated
during the Spring Festival.
Therefore, the subsequent upside may be limited, operationally, it is recommended that investors can reduce their holdings at the high and fall into their pockets
.