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On Tuesday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, with the highest 16855 yuan / ton and the lowest 16565 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 16690 yuan / ton, down 0.
27% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME aluminum pulled back slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2168 US dollars / ton, down 0.
32%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The Washington Post said that on the basis of Biden's first $1.
9 trillion and Trump-era $4 trillion bailout, the Biden administration will launch the second plan in its term, and 3 trillion is only a very preliminary figure
.
(2) 23:00 Beijing time Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended an online hearing and testified to the Senate on the semi-annual monetary report
.
(3) IAI data, global primary aluminum production in January increased by 4.
31% from the same period last year to 5.
707 million tons
.
China is expected to produce 3.
3 million mt in January, IAI said.
Spot analysis: On February 23, spot A00 aluminum reported 16760-16800 yuan / ton, the average price was 16780 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
per day.
Receivers wait and see to reduce prices, large households are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the transaction performance is not satisfactory
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 108188 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 471 tons per day; On February 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1349150 tons, down 5,000 tons per day, down 13 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 123883 lots, a daily decrease of 2054 lots, a short position of 148322 lots, a daily decrease of 1439 lots, a net short position of 24439 lots, a daily increase of 615 lots, long and short decreases, net short increases
.
Market research and judgment: On February 23, Shanghai aluminum 2104 volatility fell
slightly.
The US fiscal stimulus policy is expected to be launched, coupled with the second round of plan expectations, the US dollar index is under pressure to the downside, and the global epidemic situation has improved, which is conducive to the recovery of the economy; However, it is still necessary to pay attention to Powell's statement
on the timing of the Fed's interest rate hike.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, stimulating production capacity to continue to be launched, domestic aluminum inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, but the overall level is still low; Coupled with the expectation of domestic and foreign demand recovery after the holiday, it supports the high operation
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the main daily MACD red column contraction of the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum, focusing on the support of the 5-day moving average, is expected to adjust the high level of the market in the future
.
