The main shock of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and the actual transaction was slightly deadlocked

Market focus: At 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the Fed's monetary policy decision will be ushered in, and the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, and believes that Powell's press conference will be dovish
.
From January to August, national infrastructure investment increased by 4.
2% year-on-year, 0.
4 percentage points
faster than from January to July.
In August, the output of air conditioners, color TVs and refrigerators decreased by 2.
9%, 12.
8% and 5.
2% respectively year-on-year, and the output of washing machines increased by 4.
9%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On September 18, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 14320-14360 yuan / ton, the average price was 14340 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 10 yuan / ton
.
Intraday cargo holders are more active, and the willingness of middlemen to receive goods is still strong, but the psychological expectations of the two sides in the transaction price are different, and the actual transaction is better overall but slightly
deadlocked.
Downstream manufacturers mainly take goods on demand, and although the receiving status is not as good as the previous day, the spot price is slightly lower
than that of previous days.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 139176 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 485 tons; On September 17, LME aluminum stocks were 905725 tons, down 2,700 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 1911 contract are 79245 lots, minus 1589 lots per day, short positions are 99996 lots, daily minus 2631 lots, net short positions are 20751 lots, daily minus 1042 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

On September 18, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1911 fell slightly
.
The market has digested the Fed's 25 basis point interest rate cut, the weakening of the dollar still needs a stronger dovish signal, while downstream demand is weak, downstream aluminum rod inventory continues to accumulate, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is slowly destocked, and upstream alumina prices stabilize, which has some support
for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the shippers are more active, and the willingness of the middlemen to receive the goods is still strong, but the psychological expectations of the two sides in the transaction price are different, the actual transaction is better overall, but it is slightly deadlocked, and the downstream manufacturers mainly take goods on demand
.
Technically, the main 1911 contract of Shanghai aluminum is longer and the upper shadow, and the daily MACD green column is growing, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.