The main shock of Shanghai copper fell and a short-term range adjustment is expected

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
retail sales rose 1.
7% month-on-month in October, versus 1.
5% expected, the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest increase since March, as prices rose and household demand remained resilient
.
(2) St.
Louis Fed President Bullard said that the Fed should accelerate the reduction of monetary stimulus measures to cope with the surge in inflation in the United States
.
U.
S.
St.
Louis Fed President Bullard, U.
S.
St.
Louis Fed President Bullard
.

Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 70760-71180 yuan / ton, the average price is 70970 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton
per day.
The supply of goods is tight, the holders cover the goods and sell, the receivers are active in inquiry, and the trading atmosphere is more active, which continues to push up the premium quotation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts during the day was 18,384 tons, a daily decrease of 775 tons; On the 16th, LME copper stocks were 93,925 tons, down 1,775 tons per day, down for 9 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2112 contract 76879, -2639, short positions 93278, -1823, net positions -16399, -816, long and short are reduced, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: US inflation pressure heats up, Fed officials release hawkish signals, the dollar index continues to rise; Domestic coal supply and demand continued to improve, and coal prices weakened, dragging down non-ferrous metal prices
.
Fundamentally, the growth of upstream copper processing fees has slowed down, and the tight supply of cold materials still exists, coupled with the sharp decline in sulfuric acid prices, the pressure on refinery production has increased, and the output of refined copper in the future market is expected to remain limited
.
Copper prices have fallen recently, downstream purchasing willingness has improved, and domestic inventories have fallen slightly; Foreign inventories are still decreasing, but LME copper spot premiums have been significantly lowered, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate in
range.