The main shock operation of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be strong in the future

Market focus: (1) At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the United States will release CPI data for April, and the market is expected to show the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 10 years
.

Spot analysis: On May 12, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 19960-20000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 19980 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 160 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the supply of circulating goods is tight, the holders are shipping at high prices, the large households are more active in receiving goods, and the transaction situation is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 162552 tons on Wednesday, a daily increase of 3,069 tons, an increase of 4 consecutive days; On May 11, LME stocks were 1,780,900 tons, down 8,825 tons per day, down for seven consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract 126949 lots, a daily decrease of 4550 lots, a short position of 148681 lots, a daily decrease of 4287 lots, a net short position of 21732 lots, a daily increase of 263 lots, long and short decreases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2106 oscillation operation
on May 12.
U.
S.
inflation continues to rise, but the job market remains weak, the Federal Reserve is slow to raise interest rates, and the dollar index is under pressure
.
At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in full production, and the growth space of the operating rate is limited
.
Although the impact of dual control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia gradually decreased in April, under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, as a high-energy-consuming industry, electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will still be limited
for a long time.
Recently, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory has entered a downward trend, the consumption season has gradually appeared, and the domestic aluminum rod inventory has also continued to be destocked, which has a strong
support for aluminum prices.
Technically, the 20,000 mark of the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum is adjusted, focusing on the support of the 5-day moving average, and it is expected that the market volatility will be strong
.