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On Wednesday, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai copper encountered obstacles to the upside, with the highest 68,690 yuan / ton and the lowest 67,810 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 68,020 yuan / ton, down 0.
16% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper fell slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 9288.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
58%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) With the spread of the new crown Delta variant virus, the epidemic in European countries such as the United Kingdom, Spain, France, and Germany has returned
.
The number of infections in the United States has soared, and the epidemic has rebounded
.
(2) U.
S.
housing starts rose 6.
3% in June, reaching an annualized rate of 1.
64 million units and hitting a three-month high
.
The median market forecast is 1.
59 million units
.
(3) The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will release the second batch of national reserves of 30,000 tons of copper, 90,000 tons of aluminum and 50,000 tons
of zinc in late July.
Spot analysis: On July 21, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 68420-68780 yuan / ton, the average price was 68600 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 260 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Network reported that downstream consumption did not have much conspicuous performance, the receiving party was stable and just needed to pick less, and the overall output was more and less
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in the day was 58,659 tons, a daily decrease of 3,923 tons, and a decrease of 26 consecutive days; LME copper stocks were 224,400 tonnes, down 1,250 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2108 contract 59818, -4067, short positions 69006, -2265, net positions -9188, -1802, long and short are reduced, net short increases
.
Market research and judgment: the recent economic data of the United States is strong, supporting the expectation of acceleration of economic growth in the United States, and the dollar index is running strongly; And the spread of the global new crown variant virus and the rebound of infection cases in Europe have heated up risk aversion
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continued to grow, and copper ore processing fees TC steadily rebounded, indicating that the tension in copper mines improved
.
At present, the import window is almost open, and the pressure on the import of goods has increased
.
However, China's July copper plan to dump 30,000 tons of storage, the amount is still limited; Recently the increase in refinery maintenance, coupled with the low copper price is conducive to the recovery of demand, inventory digestion is better, copper prices are expected to stabilize
at a low level.