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    Home > Organic Chemistry Topics > Organic Chemistry Project > The Mainland methanol market rebounds concentratedly, but the Guangdong market appears relatively "calm"

    The Mainland methanol market rebounds concentratedly, but the Guangdong market appears relatively "calm"

    • Last Update: 2022-02-21
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    After the Ching Ming Festival, as the domestic methanol plant overhauls in the spring, and in conjunction with the market's appropriate stocking/replenishment stimulus around the holiday, the overall shipments of the methanol plants in the Mainland are smooth and the sales pressure is not much lower.
    The market rebounded this week, especially in the northwest.
    In the production area, some companies have experienced a cumulative increase of 160 yuan/ton for the second time, and some companies have suspended sales
    .
    ? Methanol market? Under the background of the collective rise of methanol in the Mainland, coupled with the overall decline in port inventories and the rebound in futures, the port methanol market has also increased to a certain extent after the holiday
    .
    Especially due to the sudden incident of the US air strike on Syria on Friday, global market volatility has intensified, and crude oil, gold and some futures products have risen sharply.
    Among them, the main force of methanol changed the month to MA1709 in the night trading on April 6, and MA1709 was opened on the 7th.
    2645 quickly rose to 2667.
    Affected by this, the East China methanol market moved up to 2750-2830 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30-50 yuan/ton
    .
    ? However, the current methanol market in Guangdong appears to be relatively "quiet", and the industry is slightly less motivated to push up the operation, and the market in the region has a strong wait-and-see sentiment
    .
    The reasons are as follows:? 1.
    Demand follow-up is weak, and there is limited support for the market
    .
    ? The South China methanol market, which is dominated by traditional downstream demand and consumption, is more complicated or relatively weak compared to East China
    .
    In addition to the phased effects of futures trends, the "penetration" of supply and demand fundamentals such as import arrivals, inventory fluctuations and demand coordination is more direct
    .
    At this stage, we are faced with issues such as environmental protection supervision and increased rainwater, and the local demand situation is still facing greater challenges
    .
    ? 2.
    3 Since the end of the month, the premium of methanol in Guangdong has been obvious in East China, and the market is expected to "return"
    .
    ? Since the end of March, due to the lack of imported goods and the high consumption of fixed quantities in the warehouse area, the inventory levels in Dongguan and Guangdong have decreased to varying degrees.
    Especially in Dongguan, where the goods are small and the quantity is relatively concentrated, the industry has more control over prices.
    Provide better timing
    .
    On the first day after the holiday, some of the offers in this area have risen to 2830-2850 yuan/ton, which is significantly higher than that of East China’s 80-150 yuan/ton.

    .
    However, due to the weak demand in the region and the impact of partial profitability, the relatively high momentum of the Guangdong methanol market has not continued well.
    The local market response on Thursday and Friday was "inferior" to the mainland and East China markets
    .
    3.
    The delivery month is approaching, and the futures and spot price differences will gradually become flat??? Recent trends in Guangdong methanol and the main futures?? From March, the main futures MA1705 and port methanol are at a "premium" status for most of the time.
    In mid-to-early March, its discount to Guangdong methanol reached 250-330 yuan/ton.
    As the delivery time of the MA1705 contract approaches, whether it is the upward follow-up of futures or the downward trend of the spot center of gravity, the price difference between the two has narrowed and gradually tended.
    The trend of "flat water" is further strengthened
    .
    However, the current product fundamentals are weak and under pressure, and the Guangdong methanol market has taken advantage of the trend to decline slightly, which is in sharp contrast with East China
    .
    ? In the short term, compared with the “spring inspection” fermentation that promoted the strong rise of the mainland market, based on the above considerations, the Guangdong methanol market may continue to weaken the consolidation pattern, and it is not ruled out that there is still some downside expectations
    .
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