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Yesterday's aluminum prices were weak and volatile, affected by the epidemic in many places, the transportation of aluminum ingots was partially restricted and downstream construction was disrupted to a certain extent
.
On the macro front, there is uncertainty about the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, but non-US policy and economic pressures are more significant, and the space below the US dollar is expected to be limited
.
Domestically, recent macro data has improved, but the current substantial bullish is still lacking, and the momentum for price upward is limited
.
On the supply side, the impact of overseas production capacity is still continuing, affected by energy factors, European and American electrolytic aluminum enterprises have reduced production by 1.
3 million tons in the past 1 year, and the pace of subsequent production reduction is slowing down, coupled with the increase in production in South America, the overall impact margin has weakened, and continue to pay attention to overseas energy issues
.
Domestically, the impact of power cuts in Sichuan has basically subsided, but the full recovery of production capacity may still need to wait until November
.
The affected production capacity in Yunnan may reach 1 million to 1.
5 million tons, pay attention to the progress
of its scope and duration.
In terms of downstream demand, affected by macro factors, it is still in a weak state, and the demand performance is average
.
In terms of inventory, LME inventories continue to rise, domestic inventories have fallen slightly, and there is still great uncertainty in the European and American markets and the LME restriction policy for Rusal, and the impact on prices may rise
as the deadline approaches.
The latest domestic production data shows that electrolytic aluminum production increased
further in September.
On the whole, although the current supply-side disturbance is continuous, the demand side growth rate is weak and the certainty is high, the overall supply and demand structure is marginally loose, in addition, the downward trend of aluminum prices driven by macro remains unchanged, but in the short term, market uncertainty and supply-side disturbances are increasing, and aluminum prices or shock operation
.
