The market diverges greatly, and copper prices break the support level of the consolidation range below

In terms of inventories, the biggest divergence in the market recently has been in the change of domestic and foreign inventories, and LME stocks have continued to decline and have now fallen to a low of 137,600 tons, the lowest level
since 2009.
At the same time, the write-off of warehouse receipts reached 81,000 tons, accounting for 58% of inventory, and spot premiums rose again to $44, and concerns about copper supply shortages became the focus
of the market.

But domestic copper stocks have been increasing for three consecutive weeks, breaking from the previous low of 111,000 tonnes and reaching 148,000 tonnes
on Friday.
Domestic copper spot has been at a discount since the end of September, reflecting loose domestic supply, which is associated with
a sharp increase in domestic production and imports.
This year's copper mine supply is loose, and the processing fee is higher than the annual processing fee, which currently reaches more than
$90/ton.
Coupled with the launch of new domestic production capacity this year, the growth rate of domestic copper production exceeded that of last year
.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's copper production increased by 11.
4% in the first nine months of this year, up from 6.
2%
last year.

However, from the perspective of consumption, the growth rate of copper consumption this year is much lower than last year
.
Although State Grid investment increased in the second half of the year, the growth rate in the first nine months was still -9.
6%, and there is no hope
of turning positive throughout the year.
The auto industry has been negative for four consecutive months, with growth of just 0.
6% in the first nine months, well below last year's 19%.

The air-conditioning industry has also entered the off-season, and although the production growth rate has rebounded in September, the overall downward trend has formed
.
The latest PMI data continues to retreat
.
From the industry's understanding, only the orders of the State Grid are okay in the near future, and there are no bright
spots in other cable and air conditioning industries.

Copper prices fell this week and domestic spot discounts began to shrink, but the consumer sector still did not show good buying
.
At present, the import loss exceeds 1,000 yuan per ton, and imports are suppressed
.
Therefore, the interpretation of copper stocks at home and abroad in the future has become the focus
of market attention.

The copper market and the stock market are both barometers of the economy, and the trend is basically in line with
the global economic cycle.
As the third year of copper price rise, the copper market is very likely to turn around, this year's Sino-US trade conflict has caused a direct blow to the market, the global real estate and automotive industry is currently pessimistic
.
The IMF had expected economic growth to remain at a high of 3.
9 percent this year and next, but it has been revised down to 3.
7 percent, as slowing global growth has shaken the upside of the copper market
.

From the latest data, the performance of US listed companies is better, consumer confidence is a new high since 2000, but Europe is already bleak, the preliminary GDP in the third quarter is only 1.
7%, lower than expected and the previous value, the dollar index is strong again, and breaks through the previous high to open upside, which has put pressure
on the copper market.
The November 6 midterm elections are also uncertain, as will the sustainability
of Trump's policies.
G20 leaders are likely to meet next month, but Trump's rhetoric remains dominated by threats and fears of a trade war continue to dominate markets
.

Overall, in the process of weakening global economic growth, the possibility of weak oscillations in the copper market has increased
.
If the dollar index successfully breaks 97, then the copper market to the August low of 5700 US dollars / ton or even to the consolidation range low of 5500 US dollars / ton in the first half of last year is very likely to decline, the domestic corresponding prices are 47000 yuan / ton and 45000 yuan / ton
.