The mid-to-high oil price is good for the continued prosperity of the industry chain-an analysis of the investment trend of the petrochemical sector in 2022 (part 1)

Editor's note 2021 is about to pass, and we will usher in a brand new year

Crude oil prices will remain mid-to-high

In 2021, under the influence of the "dual control" policy, energy product prices will enter an upward channel, supporting a general recovery in the industry

From a macro perspective, brokerages generally believe that they should pay close attention to the possible tightening of monetary policies in Europe and the United States in 2022

From the supply side, the OPEC+ November 2021 meeting maintained the original 400,000 barrels/day production increase plan, and crude oil supply and demand continued to be tight

Considering only supply and demand, if the original OPEC+ production increase is followed, crude oil will change from "supply in short supply" to "oversupply" starting in the second quarter of 2022

Looking at the demand side, although Omi Keron virus is in the pan, the world is fully fighting the epidemic, and the listing of individual treatment Omi Keron oral liquid has brought dawn to the economic recovery

Based on the expectation that oil prices will maintain mid-to-high levels, Everbright Securities analyst Zhao Naidi and Ping An Securities analyst Liu Yonglai are optimistic about the crude oil and petrochemical industry chain

The oil and gas production sector is generally optimistic

　　Petroleum resources are the foundation and foundation of the development of the oilfield service industry

　　In the current cycle, the epidemic triggered a sharp drop in oil prices.

　　Cinda Securities analyst Chen Shuxian believes that considering that global crude oil demand will basically return to the level before the epidemic after 2022, in order to reduce the degree of dependence on foreign oil and natural gas, the country vigorously promotes energy security and increases reserves and production

　　The polyester spandex sector is a hot spot for investment

　　In the first three quarters of 2021, the domestic textile and apparel consumer market rebounded, chemical fiber prices have risen, and industry profits have also improved significantly, especially the spandex segment, which hit a record high

　　Looking forward to 2022, Orient Securities analyst Ni Ji predicts that textile and apparel demand will continue to grow, but based on this year's high base, the growth rate will slow down

　　For polyester, the production capacity of raw materials paraxylene (PX) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will continue to maintain high growth in the next three years, and the market prospects are not optimistic

　　In terms of spandex, the spandex sector's boom in 2021 has exceeded expectations, with both prices and spreads hitting record highs