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As of November 21, the domestic natural rubber price rose to 13,800 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 12.
Taking into account the “La Nina” climate impact, labor shortages caused by the epidemic and other supply-side constraints, superimposed on the expected increase in the operating rate of tire companies, and the strong pull of synthetic rubber, the industry generally believes that the natural rubber market will continue to fluctuate in the near future
Limited supply due to weather
The weather affects the supply is limited, the weather affects the supply is limitedRegarding the supply side of natural rubber in the later period, Guolian Futures analyst Jia Wanjing believes that there is not much pressure
Recently, Thailand's floods caused by heavy rains have gradually shown an adverse impact on natural rubber production.
According to the news released by the National Climate Center, the "La Nina" climate will appear this winter, and the cold winter weather may cause the production area to stop early
Synthetic rubber pulls strongly
Synthetic rubber pulls strongly Synthetic rubber pulls strongly"Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are basically the same in the downstream application fields, and there is a strong substitution relationship between the two
According to Zhang Fang, recently, due to weather conditions in the north, transportation capacity is limited, traders are scarce, and offer prices have risen one after another
In the long run, the successive commissioning of foreign tire projects will drive domestic export demand for synthetic rubber
In addition, the gradual recovery of overseas markets is also a positive pull for synthetic rubber
Downstream demand is steadily improving
Downstream demand is steadily improving Downstream demand is steadily improvingThe end demand for natural rubber has released a positive signal
In the early stage, affected by the shortage of chips, automobile production was limited, and the automobile industry continued to be in a state of destocking
Due to tight supply and demand, natural rubber inventories are also in a state of continuous decline
In short, the domestic rubber tapping phase is about to be stopped, and downstream terminal automobile production and sales continue to improve month-on-month, which may lead to phased shortages of natural rubber.
