The new crown is still there, what will the future look like

Published by Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Rey Tang)

The whole world is paying attention to a question: where will this new crown epidemic go?

The British "Nature" magazine recently published a long in-depth opinion article discussing the trend of the new crown epidemic after the progress of vaccine research and development

The expert team reminded that there are still some important gaps between our current knowledge of epidemiology, virology and immunology and the development of the monitoring, vaccination and treatment tools required for an effective global response

Can history answer the question of the new crown?

It is appropriate and reasonable to use observations of past epidemics to help predict the evolutionary future of pathogens

In the article, experts David Keti, Amario Telenti and their colleagues believe that such comparisons are difficult to produce directly

However, the influenza pandemic of 1918 can be used as a comparison object

When will the new crown become the common cold?

Virus evolution will change the mode of transmission and the severity of the disease

The new coronavirus will continue to evolve and evade immunity

Generally speaking, the spread of respiratory viruses requires replication and excretion through the upper respiratory tract, and its harmfulness depends on the invasion and replication ability in the lower respiratory tract

However, the new coronavirus is more complicated-the virus uses the ACE2 receptor to invade human cells, and this receptor exists both in the upper respiratory tract and the lower respiratory tract-so it is likely to enhance both the transmission capacity and the enhancementtoxic

Compared with influenza viruses, the new coronavirus has unprecedented evolutionary capabilities, but it is unpredictable whether it will eventually evolve into a more virulent virus

But you need to know that if you want the toxicity of the new coronavirus to degenerate to the point where it is similar to the common cold, it may not happen, or it will take decades to show up

Vaccination requires global coordination

The rapid development of a safe and efficient new crown vaccine is undoubtedly a historic achievement

Of course, people want to quickly control new infections in as many areas as possible, but this result depends on the widespread use of vaccines on a global scale

This requires global coordination that combines efficient vaccine coverage, active surveillance, and rapid and targeted vaccination when an outbreak occurs

Experts believe that under large-scale vaccination, the new coronavirus may no longer cause severe illness, but it still has pathogenic potential and may have a regional outbreak

Three "future scenarios" of the new crown epidemic

The experts finally envisioned three different "future scenarios" about the new crown epidemic

The first is the most worrying situation.
We are unable to quickly control the epidemic.
In the future, we will face persistent severe symptoms and high infection rates, which in turn will promote the further development of the disease
.
Vaccines may achieve long-term herd immunity, but this requires widespread vaccination on a global scale, supplemented by accurate and rapid diagnostic analysis and monitoring
.

The second is a situation that is more likely to come true.
The new crown has transitioned into an epidemic seasonal disease, just like the flu
.
But you should know that the flu accounts for two-thirds of people aged 65 and over who die of respiratory diseases each year
.
Although in this scenario, effective treatments can control the progression of the disease, they still cannot be blindly optimistic
.

The third is that the new crown has changed to a level similar to that of a common coronavirus, and its impact is much lower than that of influenza
.
However, our understanding of human coronavirus data is relatively limited.
As mentioned earlier, we cannot confidently predict whether the new coronavirus will increase or decrease its inherent "virulence" after further adaptation to humans
.

This is the world we may face after the new crown epidemic
.
The article written by the experts this time is not a research paper.
It aims to provide a forum for researchers to discuss models and opinions from a personal perspective
.
But such articles have also been peer reviewed
.