The news surface guides the breaking of the conventional pattern, how the trend of refined oil products in August

At the beginning of August, the calm Shandong market suddenly set off waves, guided by the news, Shandong independent refinery gasoline and diesel prices have soared, as of August 3, gasoline prices 8625 yuan / ton, up 128 yuan / ton or 1.
51% from the end of July; The price of diesel fuel is 8091 yuan / ton, up 347 yuan / ton or 4.
48% from the previous month, and after the price has risen widely, how the independent refinery in Shandong has performed, and how the market trend is in the future
.

After the wide rise in gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong independent refineries on August 3, this wave of rising market brought about by the guidance of the news did not last, and began to fall on August 4, and the gasoline price was 8530 yuan / ton as of the 7th, down 95 yuan / ton or 1.
10% from the 3rd of the month; The price of diesel fuel was 7869 yuan / ton down 222 yuan / ton or 2.
74
yuan from the previous month.
After the uncontrollable factors of the news surface have been diluted, the market price has gradually returned to rationality, but the correction has not yet reached the increase
at the beginning of the month.

With the over-rise in prices, panic in the middle and lower reaches of the market, chasing into the market began to increase, as can be seen from the above figure, Shandong independent refinery at the beginning of the month the overall shipment volume is maintained in the production and sales of more than 100 states, have achieved destocking, and from the 4th refinery sales declined
.

Due to the impact of the news at the beginning of the month, the cost of the sharp decline in crude oil was hidden, but with the end of uncontrollable factors, the superimposed August 4 crude oil closed down again, and broke the bottom support of $95 / barrel, resulting in the middle and lower reaches of the market began to be cautious, wait and see the market waiting for the time to enter the
market.

However, compared with gasoline, diesel is only in the doldrums after a day of high efficiency out of the warehouse, which needs to be concerned is that under the influence of the news, the offshore transaction of diesel in Shandong independent refinery has reached 135,000 tons as of the 7th, and some refineries have received large orders for external mining, and the market is worried about the shortage of diesel sources, and the middle and lower reaches have entered the market, making the refinery diesel shipments relatively good
.

In the future, after being guided by the news, although the independent refinery in Shandong had a brief highlight moment, it lacked stamina, and after the basic digestion of uncontrollable factors was completed, the price gradually returned to positive
.
First of all, from the supply side, the current overall operating rate of Shandong is 67.
44, which is still 3.
89 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, although some refineries have reduced the negative rotation inspection, but the overall supply capacity is still maintained above
the high level.

In addition, from the perspective of the historical trend of crude oil, the neutral valuation range of crude oil is 60-80 US dollars, once the crude oil effectively breaks the key support of 95-100, the range of more than 80 US dollars, it is difficult to have resistance, after the bottom price of 95 US dollars / barrel is effectively broken, the follow-up or will continue to explore expectations, and the cost side is also bearish
.

Therefore, under the current supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly, the cost surface is bearish, the short-term Shandong independent refinery gasoline and diesel or will be temporarily difficult to rise, but with the beginning of the middle and the middle and lower reaches for the upcoming "Golden Nine Silver Ten", then it may become a real gasoline and diesel start-up opportunity
.