The off-season is not short, the price of phosphorus chemical products has risen strongly, and the price of monoammonium phosphate has increased by 65.5%

Phosphate chemical industry is one of the most widely used industries in China.
Since this year, under the interference of multiple factors at home and abroad, the price of upstream phosphate rock has continued to rise, and the price of downstream products has also continued to rise
.

According to data from China Chemical Economic and Technological Development Center, since the beginning of the year, the price of domestic phosphate rock has continued to rise from 680 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.
6%; the price of monoammonium phosphate has risen from 2,900 yuan/ton to 4,800 yuan.
/ ton, an increase of 65.
5%; the price of diammonium phosphate rose from 3,700 yuan / ton to 4,750 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.
4%; the price of lithium iron phosphate rose from about 140,000 tons / year to 157,500 tons / year; yellow phosphorus The price has also risen from about 33,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 39,000 yuan/ton
.
Although May entered the off-season of domestic demand, the price of domestic phosphate chemical products was not weak in the off-season and continued to rise due to the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials such as phosphate rock and other factors
.
In the future, affected by the international situation, shortage of raw materials, strong downstream demand and other factors, it is expected that the price of phosphorus chemical products will continue to rise
.

Short term: Tight supply and cost support with significant benefits

In the short term, due to the supply-side structural reform, the tightening of environmental protection and the impact of the international situation on the phosphate fertilizer industry, we expect the tight supply of phosphate rock will continue in the next 1-2 years, which will provide significant costs for the phosphate chemical sector.
support
.
Mineral-rich enterprises are expected to fully benefit
.

Phosphate rock is a scarce resource, which is non-renewable and irreplaceable
.
China began to implement phosphate rock export quotas in 2009, and the National Mineral Resources Plan (2016-2020) approved by the State Council in 2016 listed phosphorus as a "strategic non-metallic mineral" for the first time
.

The global basic reserves of phosphate rock are about 70 billion tons, and China's basic reserves are ranked second, about 3.
3 billion tons
.
On the surface, China's phosphate rock reserves are relatively large.
However, more than 60% of China's phosphate rock is mined underground, and 70% of it is low-grade phosphate rock.
Mining and beneficiation are difficult and costly
.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic output of phosphate rock in 2020 is 81.
96 million tons, and the output has continued to decline since peaking in 2015
.
In recent years, the state has continued to promote the optimization of the supply-side structure through export quotas, resource tax reforms and environmental protection inspections.
The phosphate rock industry has restricted and reduced production, while new phosphate rock mining approvals have gradually become stricter, and the phosphate rock supply side has continued to shrink
.
At the same time, the phosphate chemical industry is a highly polluting industry.
Under the environment of increasingly strict environmental protection requirements, the domestic small-scale phosphate mine capacity has been cleared one after another
.

Mid-to-long term: Continued implementation of downstream projects drives strong upstream demand

In the medium and long term, phosphorus chemical companies have been deploying iron phosphate plates since the second quarter of last year.
At present, there are many delays in project construction.
The domestic iron phosphate operating rate is close to full production, and the excess income of the plate is obvious
.
According to estimates, the gross profit margin of the industry is close to 50% under the external procurement of raw materials, so the companies that take the lead in expanding production this year are expected to enjoy excess returns
.

With the continuous implementation of the iron phosphate project, the demand for phosphate rock in the upstream will continue to grow.
According to estimates, the proportion of new energy demand for phosphate rock will increase from less than 2% at present to more than 10% in 2025
.

Lithium iron phosphate is generally prepared by solid-phase method.
In industry, phosphorus source, iron source and lithium source are mixed and dried, and then sintered at low temperature and high temperature twice under inert gas to obtain lithium iron phosphate
.
As a cathode material, lithium iron phosphate has the advantages of low cost, long cycle life, and good safety, so lithium iron phosphate batteries are widely used
.

In the cost composition of iron phosphate, the phosphorus source accounts for the largest proportion, reaching 35%
.
It is estimated that the demand for phosphate rock driven by lithium iron phosphate will account for 9% of the total output in 2025, and phosphate rock will become an important strategic resource for iron phosphate enterprises
.