The outbreak is urgent, many countries ban food exports? Influence geometry on our country?

. Bloomberg reported that Kazakhstan, a major wheat flour exporter, has banned exports of wheat flour, carrots, sugar and potatoes, Vietnam has suspended new rice export contracts and Serbia has banned exports of commodities such as sunflower oil. Russia has also said it will assess the situation on a weekly basis before deciding whether to impose an export ban.
same time, Algeria and Turkey, the main wheat importers, issued new tenders and Morocco suspended tariffs on wheat imports until mid-June.
time, fears of a food crisis have been rising. Several mainstream media in China have also reported on this new development under the epidemic. The China Science Daily has synthed with some government departments, scientific research institutions and international organizations, and has not yet received a reply.
does it mean to ban food exports from many countries? For this purpose, the China Science Journal interviewed Yu Shenggen, a professor in the School of Economics and Management of the Agricultural University of China, and Pu Shenggen, Ph.D., Of the Institute of Agricultural Economics of the Chinese AcademyAcademy of Agricultural Sciences.I did see the Bloomberg report, which has credibility, but I haven't verified it yet. I wouldn't be surprised if these bans are true. In some countries, panic can occur. This ban on domestic food exports occurred during the 2007-2008 food crisis.is now relatively certain about Vietnam. Several other countries have learned this information mainly from domestic and foreign reports. Official information is not currently available on the websites of Governments and international agencies.the depth and breadth of the outbreak, more and more cities and countries are closing their borders. Although it is mainly limited by the flow of people, the movement of goods is also affected accordingly. In such cases, some countries may overreact in order to ensure stable domestic food prices and adequate supplies. Exporting countries, for example, restrict or ban exports and keep more food, while importing countries worry about food not coming in, so buy it as soon as possible.
over time, I think this panic is likely to intensify and spread, affecting the liquidity of trade terminals.
in fact, global grain production will be stable in 2019, and prices have been relatively stable so far, with only a small increase in individual countries and regions. On the whole, food is enough to eat. What we need to guard against is the consequences of panic.the current international situation is more complex, the outbreak, crude oil prices plummeted, U.S. stocks fuse and other events superimposed, need to get the official information of the export ban before it is easy to verify the inference.
From the situation in Vietnam, according to Vietnam's Vietnam News Agency, the reason for the promulgation is that "in the current climate change and epidemic situation is serious and complex, the Prime Minister asked the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance responsible for ensuring the stability of rice supply."
from the content of the statement, it has both supply and consumer concerns. Poor weather conditions on the supply side, the failure of production management to keep up with the outbreak may lead to a reduction in food production, and the consumption side may lead to a change in the pace of consumption due to the outbreak, and people are hoarding food. No other official announcements have been made.This has to do with the spread and control of the epidemic. Particular attention needs to be paid to the countries of Africa, South Asia and Central and South America, where the number of confirmed cases is small, but the situation is not encouraging if it is not well controlled in the coming month. Because these developing countries themselves suffer from hunger and malnutrition, they are much less resilient to crises than developed countries in Europe and the United States.
is closely watching whether Vietnam's rice export policy will affect the direction of Thailand and India's policies, and whether Kazakhstan's wheat export ban will spread to russia, Ukraine and even major wheat-producing regions such as Argentina, the United States and Canada in the Americas.depends on the share of global food trade in the countries that issued the bans.
From 2018 data, major rice exporters include India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan, which account for nearly 70 percent of global rice exports, including Vietnam, which accounts for about 7 million tons, or 14.5 percent, and Russia, the United States, the European Union, Canada and Ukraine, which account for 72.8 percent of global wheat exports.
in terms of Vietnamese rice's share of the global market, vietnam's measures will have some impact, but are relatively limited.
restrictions on other countries have yet to be verified. But in terms of their share of agricultural products, it is Russia's wheat exports, which account for 20.9 per cent of the world's total in 2018.
prices generally fell in February on the basis of overall optimism about the global supply outlook for 2020, according to the FAO Wheat Price Monitoring Report. But the impact of the new crown pneumonia outbreak on global demand is worrying.
, vietnam's export restrictions will further trigger other major food exporters to follow suit. If other countries follow suit, a situation similar to the 2007-2008 food crisis could occur, with major food producers restricting exports, triggering global supply shortages and rising prices.if the global food supply chain were to break down as a result of the embargo, the situation would be similar to the food crisis around 2008. Once major food-exporting countries restrict exports, it will lead to a global food supply strain, increase food prices and put greater tension and pressure on countries with high dependence on food imports.The overall external dependence of grain in China is not high, among which the external dependence of staple grain is very low. Rice, wheat, corn, the three main grain self-sequipping degree is very high, production and demand relationship is tight balance, production can meet demand, coupled with abundant stocks, the overall supply of sufficient.
high degree of external dependence is mainly soybeans. In the past two years, diversified imports and expansion of domestic soybean cultivation area have been adopted to reduce the impact.has little impact on China's food supply and prices. From the experience of the food crisis of 2008 and the rise in global food prices in 2010, our domestic food supply and prices have not been greatly affected. From the current situation, China's food production base is solid, abundant stocks, low external dependence of staple food, fully capable of dealing with the risks of the international food market.China has a complete national reserve system, is the world has the largest reserves of grain, outstanding regulatory capacity, grain storage level in the world's leading countries.
the outbreak, food stocks were mentioned at press conferences in major provinces, most of which are at record highs. From this point of view, domestic food supply and stable prices are fully basic and conditional. A high degree of stability in grain and oil prices during the outbreak was also supported.the overall trend of the three major domestic grain prices is very stable, affected by the outbreak slightly floating.in China's grain composition is mainly rice, wheat, corn, the three main grains dominated, soybean share is relatively small, the impact on domestic food prices and the supply of total plate is small.At present, the domestic work to ensure the implementation of spring farming is good, can basically ensure that agricultural materials in place. This is of great significance for ensuring this year's harvest.outbreak of new crown pneumonia, the central government attaches great importance to food production. The relevant instructions and measures are mainly to stabilize the basis of China's food production, to ensure a stable supply of domestic food, to crush the foundation of food security.
face of foreign risks, stabilizing domestic food supplies can effectively prevent fluctuations in international food markets from transmitting to the domestic market and provide a solid strategic basis for dealing with the increasingly complex international situation., international food trade should remain open, and there is no need to ban or restrict exports, increase tariffs and buy wildly. Second, vulnerable groups in developing countries should be guaranteed access to adequate food and nutrition. Third, many countries have entered spring farming, to ensure the provision of adequate human and material resources. Finally, the international community and institutions are called upon to pay close attention to global food trade movements in order to avoid heightened panic. on the one hand, in view of the current outbreak brought about by the slow availability of agricultural capital, agricultural capital prices and other outstanding problems, we should urgently unblock the supply channels of agricultural capital, orderly organization of return to the field rework. At present, all over the country are in a hurry to resume spring farming production, the results are more obvious.
, on the other hand, targeted measures should be taken to address the risks to food security throughout the year. This year, the overall deviation of agricultural meteorology, traditional pests and diseases and imported pests superimposed, the international economic and trade situation is becoming increasingly complex, to ensure the stability of food production, supply stability pressure can not be underestimated.
We should stabilize support policies, protect farmers' enthusiasm to grow grain, pay more attention to the prudent adjustment of rice and wheat market acquisitions, stabilize subsidies for the protection of cultivated land and implement producer subsidies, closely track pest and disease monitoring, promote scientific disaster reduction and prevention of production, strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction, and play a supporting role in science and technology.
to pay attention to the trend of international trade, to prevent risk in-transmission. With the invasion of locusts, the migration of grasslands, the outbreak of new crown pneumonia in many countries, China's food international trade environment has become more complex, the use of international markets to adjust the domestic food market costs become higher, the risk becomes greater.
need to pay close attention to the trend of international grain market, timely detection of risks affecting the domestic food market, timely response measures.