The overall shock of Shanghai aluminum new production capacity limits the upward momentum of prices

Macroscopic: On November 15, China, Japan and South Korea and other 15 countries signed RCEP, the regional economic cooperation agreement covers 1/3 of the world's population, the conclusion of RCEP will promote regional economic integration and coordinated development, promote regional trade freedom and global economic and trade cooperation in the context of the global economic and trade environment, China's a number of macroeconomic data recently released, strong performance will promote aluminum prices to continue to
rise.
The global epidemic is still ferocious, with more than 250,000 deaths in the United States on the 18th, exceeding the estimates of the number of deaths in the United States during the epidemic by experts from the White House new crown epidemic response team in March
.

Supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in November, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.

Stocks: LME stocks were dematerialized by 4,000 tons to 1,395,500 tons yesterday, 486 tons to 232,100 tons last week, and warehouse receipts fell sharply by 12,099 tons to 98,237 tons
.
According to the data on November 23, the social stock decreased by 04,000 tons compared with the statistics on November 19 to 618,000 tons, and the social stock continued to remain low
.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is at a low level in the historical year, which forms a strong support
for the price.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the production capacity of the supply side is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in November further releases a certain suppression of the price of electrolytic aluminum, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.