Last week, the price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated upward, and the center of gravity moved upward; The LME market is also volatile
Domestically, the aluminum ingot social library accumulated 43,000 tons this week, the accumulation was relatively slow, the market began to trade the logic of accumulation less than expected, and pushed up aluminum prices
before the holiday.
In terms of spot, the overall transaction is still weak, and most of them are mainly on-demand procurement
Before and after the Spring Festival is an obvious accumulation cycle, but this year's pre-holiday reserve factors to consider, the total accumulation range or lower than market expectations, but also to investors psychology a support, but the processing industry will then have certain problems - mismatch of production and demand, pre-holiday production failed to digest in time, to wait for post-holiday digestion, after the holiday according to the current epidemic prevention standards can be started on time is still unknown, that is, part of the aluminum ingot accumulation warehouse in advance into downstream finished product inventory
From this point of view, the optimism of the pre-holiday reserve may not be able to continue to the post-holiday, but if the pre-holiday aluminum price rises, it may become a major factor
for bears after the holiday.
Before the Spring Festival, the aluminum price due to the downstream reserve, the accumulation of storage is not smooth, the price to form a certain support, but may not be able to drive the full support of funds, investors at this time should pay more attention to whether the position is continuously amplified
In addition, the current high price of aluminum fell by 2,000 yuan / ton, but the profits for electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises are still rich, that is, there is no sufficient margin of safety for long
After the Spring Festival, we should pay attention to the absolute price and profit of aluminum to consider, from the perspective of this year's epidemic prevention, the full launch or will still be delayed, and high prices and high profits have become unfavorable factors
Therefore, combined with the forecast of supply and demand and cost, aluminum prices may still have a certain decline