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On July 5, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures opened at 19,000 yuan, the highest intraday touched 19,140 yuan, the lowest tested 18,530 yuan, as of the close, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell by more than 2.
81%.
In terms of external trading, as of now, LME aluminum opened at $2462.
50, the highest price was $2477.
00, the lowest price was $2435.
00, and now it is at $
2438.
50.
At present, non-ferrous metals are more affected by the macro level, although the resumption of work and production is underway, but the boost to demand is limited, and the downstream is mainly
purchased on demand.
Therefore, it still maintains a weak shock and the central downward view, and it is still possible to sell
short between 20000-21000.
In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose steadily during the week, entering June, Gansu and other places still have some production capacity to resume production, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continues to rise, the end of June operating capacity is expected to reach around
40.
75 million tons.
In terms of demand, Shanghai fully resumed work during the week, downstream consumption in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions improved, and consumption in Gongyi in the Central Plains was strong, superimposed on the impact of warehousing pledge events, warehouse shipments in various places increased, and inventory decreased significantly
.
Downstream demand is supported, and the new energy vehicle data in May is still bright, exceeding market expectations, with new energy vehicle sales in May +105% year-on-year, and cumulative sales from January to May reaching 2.
003 million units, an increase of 111.
2%
year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum continue to go to storage
.
As of July 4, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 749,000 tons, down 17,000 tons
from last week.
Although consumption has been repaired, the pace is slow, and the pace of destocking has begun to slow down
.
Overall, after June, overseas macro suppression, the entire industrial metal sector fluctuated and fell
.
Domestic demand is still in the recovery phase and is expected to remain weak.
The Fed's interest rate hike triggered market fears of recession, which is the main reason for the decline in copper prices, the supply side has improved, but the recovery of domestic consumption is less than expected, and aluminum prices are expected to maintain a wide range of volatility in the short term, and it is expected to fall weakly in the later period
.
