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On Monday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper fell sharply, with the highest 66940 yuan / ton and the lowest 65650 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price was 65690 yuan / ton, down 1.
54% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME copper fell and fluctuated, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $8814 / ton, down 1.
29%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) US President Joe Biden proposed a $1.
52 trillion fiscal year 2022 budget, which includes proposals to significantly increase funding to address inequality, disease and climate change
.
(2) The monthly growth rate of U.
S.
PPI in March was 1.
0%, and the annual growth rate was 4.
2%, the highest since 2011; Core PPI rose 0.
7% m/m in March, compared with an annual growth rate of 3.
1%.
(3) On April 9, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 613,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from last week; China's copper ore processing fee TC was 29.
3 US dollars / dry ton, unchanged
from last week.
Spot analysis: On April 12, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 65620-65800 yuan / ton, the average price was 65710 yuan / ton, and the daily decline was 1060 yuan / ton
.
According to the Yangtze River Nonferrous Report, traders are waiting and seeing, the downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, and the transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 116363 tons on Monday, an increase of 1275 tons per day; On April 9, LME copper stocks stood at 163,100 tonnes, up 6,025 tonnes
per day.
As of the week of April 9, the previous period of Shanghai copper stocks reported 193568 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,060 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract were 67643 lots, minus 2642 lots per day, short positions were 73066 lots, daily minus 3949 lots, net short positions were 5423 lots, daily minus 1307 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2105 fell
sharply on April 12.
The US president proposed a $1.
52 trillion budget for fiscal year 2022, while the overall US PPI rose 4.
2% in March from the same period last year, indicating that inflationary pressures continued to increase, and the dollar index recovered slightly
.
Upstream Chile's poor copper mine production at the beginning of the year, coupled with the recent closure of the border due to the epidemic, the tightening of domestic copper mine supply and the lower TC processing fee, put pressure on smelter production, and refined copper production is expected to decline
slightly in April.
At present, downstream demand is still weak, and domestic copper inventories have not yet entered a downward channel, but the domestic demand season is still expected, and copper prices continue to adjust.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2105 contract is large, focusing on the support of the 65000 mark, and it is expected that the short-term range will be adjusted
.
