The possibility of Shanghai copper rebound increases and is expected to be range-bound next week

On the macro front, the Politburo meeting proposed to do a good job in cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies, maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macro policies, actively pursue fiscal policies and reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and do a good job in ensuring the supply and price
stability of bulk commodities.
It shows that management has expected economic growth to slow down and will return to the bottom line thinking, and landlord debt and liquidity will enter a growth inflection point
.

Last week, the dust settled on the Fed's July interest rate meeting, which said it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, and Powell also said that it was not yet time
to reduce the size.
Although this meeting is basically in line with market expectations, due to the excessive rise in copper prices in the early stage, the market has a technical correction, bull sentiment has cooled down, and copper prices have fallen by nearly 1,000 yuan
.
In the short term, European and American policies are still dovish, focusing on the final value of the manufacturing and service PMI and the US non-farm payrolls data, and the dollar may find some support
at the bottom when the US market employment data in July will further improve.

On the news front, workers at Chile's copper mine, the world's largest copper mine, voted to strike, which will also raise concerns about global copper supply, as well as low inventories, which are supported
by copper prices.

In terms of stocks, SMM statistics showed that domestic copper social stocks were 150,000 tons on Friday, down only 8,000 tons from the previous week, but bonded stocks fell by nearly 20,000 tons
.
Due to the rise in copper prices last week, the downstream is generally afraid of heights to reduce procurement, and the import customs declaration volume has increased sharply, focusing on whether imported copper can continue to flow in large quantities in the future, and if so, inventory may appear in
stockpiles.

The spread of the domestic variant of the new crown virus is grim, the lockdown policy in many places has an expected impact on industrial recovery, copper fundamental consumption may be limited to hit the bulls' momentum, while on the other hand, the Fed's attitude towards tightening monetary policy has intensified, and many winds have tightened liquidity to hit copper market confidence
.
However, it is worth noting that the recent Chilean copper mine strike activity on the news is frequent, in the current fundamental situation is not optimistic to stimulate the technical rebound or there is a possibility of increase, it is expected that next week's Shanghai copper range volatility, around the main force of 70,000 up and down the line to do the possibility of competition, with the domestic epidemic prevention progress accelerated, there is more support for the price may be
.
The short-term reference range of Shanghai copper main force is 6.
95-71,000
.