The price of a pig? Pork consumption fell by nearly 40% and the industry is looking forward to the pig season.

High pig prices significantly curbed demand for pork, with consumption falling by nearly 40% according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' fixed-point monitoring of 500 county markets, and in the second week of September, the national average price of pork was 55.65 yuan per kilogram, down 0.6% month-on-month and up 32.8% year-on-year.
average price of live pigs in China was RMB36.75/kg, down 0.7% month-on-month and up 37.7% year-on-year.
high pork prices have indeed dampened pork consumption.
1. Data on the slaughter volume of pig slaughter enterprises above the national scale (provided by the Livestock and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs) In August 2020, the slaughter volume was 11.7892 million head, an increase of 0.7% month-on-month and 19.44% year-on-year.
January-August 2020, the number of slaughters was 98.5422 million, a decrease of 39.26% year-on-year.
because the scale of enterprise pig slaughter can account for more than 30% of the annual production of pigs, so the data has a higher representative.
and the current high price of pork, raw meat prices are much higher than frozen meat, so slaughtered pigs can be regarded as full consumption.
so from this point of view, you can roughly say: the country's January-August, pig consumption fell by about 40%.
2. In August 2020, the volume of white bar trading in the main wholesale market (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Information Center) was 403.78 million tons, down 28.88 percent year-on-year.
January-August 2020, the volume of white bars traded was 332,300 tonnes, down 34% year-on-year.
the correlation between the wholesale volume and price of white bars was negative 80.34%.
this data, pork consumption fell by more than 30% year-on-year, less than 40%.
3, Shanghai Agricultural and Rural Commission's Shanghai pork market analysis (weekly report) in the 37th week of 2020 (9.05-9.11), according to shanghai Jiangyang, Shanghai Agricultural Products Center, Western Suburbs International and Seven Bao agricultural products trading four wholesale market data, this week's wholesale average price of pork (fresh white strip) 42.80 yuan / kg, down 3.99% month-on-month.
wholesale market traded 3,483 tons, an increase of 332 tons over last week (3,151 tons), with an average daily trading volume of 498 tons, an increase of 10.53 percent month-on-month.
2020, the volume of white bars in Shanghai's four major wholesale markets was 141,800 tonnes, down 31.95 per cent year-on-year.
the correlation between shanghai and Shanghai's white bar price was -74.93%.
this data, Shanghai pork consumption fell by more than 30% year-on-year.
the above three sets of data, we can judge that in 2020, due to high pork prices, pork consumption should be about 30% YoY decline, less than 40%.
2 Pig breeding significantly resumed, after the market is weak, the industry is looking forward to pig futures listed farmers daily interview with the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Livestock and Veterinary Bureau related to the person in charge: comprehensive consideration of pork production and import increase, as well as the release of pork consumption demand after the outbreak, the Mid-Autumn National Day pork consumption seasonal growth and other factors, the recent pork overall is still tight.
with the continued increase in the number of listed fat pigs, supply and demand will further ease in the fourth quarter, the average price of pork is expected to be lower than the level of the same period last year.
according to expert simulation, this year's September-December pig out of the column will increase month by month, the cumulative number of columns, although lower than the normal year, but an increase of 17.3% over the same period last year, the supply situation is better than in 2019.
Liu Yong good think: I believe that by the middle of next year, pork prices gradually return to normal prices is possible in the early stage, Dalian Commodity Exchange held pig futures simulation trading, far-month contract prices significantly lower than the recent contract, in fact, represents the industry for the recovery of long-term pig farming confidence and price trends expectations.
face the risk that pig prices will enter a down cycle, the industry is looking forward to pig futures listing.
.