The price of calcium carbide plummeted by 3,500 yuan per ton, and enterprises suffered losses one after another

After the price of calcium carbide hit a new high of 7,900 yuan (ton price, the same below) in late October, it fell sharply to interpret the roller coaster market.
At present, the mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, the main producing area, is between 4,300 and 4,400 yuan
.
  

For the later trend, industry insiders believe that the tight supply side and the mild recovery in demand are expected to help the calcium carbide market get out of the bottom
.

The bottom features are obvious

According to Meng Xianxing, deputy director of the Shandong Chemical Research Institute, in early October, the calcium carbide market was driven by tight supply and the resumption of production of downstream PVC maintenance enterprises, and the price continued to climb to the high point of the year
.
However, in late October, with the easing of power cuts in Inner Mongolia, the starting load of calcium carbide enterprises increased, and the market supply increased accordingly.
In addition, the high price of calcium carbide led to weak downstream receipts, and the downward price window opened
.
In November, the price of calcium carbide continued to fall, and has fallen by 3,500 yuan so far
.

It is understood that in the face of the unfavorable situation, calcium carbide production enterprises have adopted the strategy of actively shipping out the pockets, but the sluggish demand has led to the accumulation of inventory in some enterprises
.

At present, the operating rate of the calcium carbide industry is 73.
5%, slightly higher than that at the end of October
.
"From the perspective of the market outlook, although the two overhaul furnaces in Shuangxin are scheduled to resume production in the near future, Zhonggu Chemical and Shenmu Electrochemical are still under maintenance, Inner Mongolia Zhonglian plans to overhaul one furnace, and Dongyi Chemical plans to overhaul 6 furnaces for 4-5 Today , the supply of calcium carbide is expected to decrease
.
" Meng Xianxing said
.

In addition, the rapid reduction of calcium carbide prices has led to successive losses of enterprises, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices
.
In mid-November, companies such as Inner Mongolia Zhonglian and Ningxia Dadi tentatively raised the price of calcium carbide, and traders were more motivated to buy goods
.

Costs are about to stabilize

From the point of view of upstream coal, under the policy control, the current price of washed lump coal is nearly halved from the previous high of 2300-2400 yuan
.
Under the linkage effect, the overall industrial chain of calcium carbide-related raw materials blue carbon has experienced a downward trend to varying degrees
.

Under the support of high profits in the early stage, the output of blue carbon has increased significantly, and each manufacturer has different levels of inventory
.
However, the downstream demand is sluggish, the output of ferrosilicon has dropped by 104,600 tons compared with the same period of last year, the demand for small materials continues to be sluggish, and the shipment situation is obviously weaker than that of medium materials
.
At the same time, the high price in the previous period caused some export orders to suspend purchases, and the demand for small materials was weak
.
In addition, affected by the rise in electricity prices, the downstream enterprises of blue carbon showed signs of loss, the operating rate was reduced, the demand for blue carbon decreased, and the price fell
.

However, recently, the price of blue carbon has reached the downstream psychological expectations, and downstream enterprises will gradually resume purchasing.
After the price of blue carbon has basically bottomed, the market transaction will increase
.
  

Judging from the current coal market, most of the northern regions have entered the heating season, which will have a certain support for coal demand
.
At the same time, the coal market is already showing signs of narrowing and gradually bottoming out
.
In addition, the demand for thermal coal is still strong, driving the coal shipment situation to gradually improve
.

On the whole, with the stabilization of coal prices and the gradual improvement of downstream demand, the risk that the price of blue carbon will continue to fall sharply is basically eliminated, and the cost aspect will not cause a big drag on the recovery of the calcium carbide market
.

Demand picks up moderately

According to Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, from the perspective of downstream PVC, after the price of raw material calcium carbide fell rapidly, the cost pressure of external PVC mining enterprises eased, profits began to rebound, and the operating rate of PVC enterprises increased significantly, especially It is because the installation load in North China and Central China has increased by 20 to 30%, and the purchase of calcium carbide has increased
.

At present, the domestic PVC price is relatively low, and the export market is relatively smooth.
Some PVC manufacturers are in a good situation in receiving orders, and there are about 70,000 tons of export orders to be delivered
.
The domestic downstream demand has not increased for the time being.
Although the power curtailment in Zhejiang and other places has been gradually lifted, the downstream product enterprises are still operating at a low level and continue to maintain just-in-demand procurement, which limits the further increase in the operating rate of the PVC industry
.
However, the recent restart of the PVC maintenance device will undoubtedly be a great benefit to the raw material calcium carbide market
.

From the perspective of downstream 1,4-butanediol, the Shaanxi chemical plant has restarted, but the Dongyuan, Cathay, Ronghe, and Tianye plants are still under maintenance.
The overall operating rate of the industry is not high, and the supply of goods is still tight
.
The overall load on the downstream demand side is average, some industries are still in a state of loss, the transmission of costs to the terminal is blocked, and the main players have strong resistance to high prices
.

Another downstream vinyl acetate under the support of limited shipments by manufacturers, the market bullish sentiment is more obvious
.
The downstream has a good acceptance of price increases and strong support from the demand side.
The vinyl acetate market still has bullish expectations.
The operating rate of production enterprises may gradually increase, which is expected to drive the raw calcium carbide market to get rid of the bottom and usher in a rise
.