The price of chemical fertilizers has fallen across the board. Is it possible to do short-term storage?

In October, farmers use less fertilizer and enter the season of short-storing chemical fertilizers.
From what the author knows, this year's dealers' attitudes towards short-sales reserves are clearly polarized.
The low price of fertilizer is the biggest temptation for dealers to short-stay.
This year, the prices of chemical fertilizers have fallen almost across the board.
According to market monitoring data, the prices of urea, diammonium, potassium chloride, and compound fertilizers have fallen by 11% to 20% year-on-year.
The current prices are at a rare low point in many years.
A dealer in Hebei believes that this year's urea price has returned to the level of the 1990s, which is simply a "cabbage price.
" The production cost of the enterprise is increasing, but the selling price is so low.
At the ex-factory price of 1,200 yuan (ton price, the same below), how many manufacturers are not at a loss? It is too abnormal.
He plans to store one to two thousand tons of urea.
A dealer in Guangxi said that the local urea price has increased recently.
The current reserve price of a brand of urea from other provinces in the Guangxi market is 1,360 yuan.
He thinks it should be the lowest price.
There will be no such low price in ten years.
.
Northeast Diammonium is used in a large amount.
A local distributor said that this year, Diammonium is also worth storing.
Originally, the price of diammonium was relatively low in July, but it continued to fall and dropped to 150 yuan.
At present, some companies have introduced a light storage policy for the Northeast.
The low arrival price is about 2,300 yuan, which is lower than in previous years.
More than 500 yuan.
Compared with compound fertilizer, the price advantage of diammonium is still obvious, and the risk of short-term storage is not big.
However, some dealers also asked: Is the price low, must it be an opportunity? At present, most dealers are relatively indifferent to the short-sale attitude.
At present, a few phosphate and compound fertilizer manufacturers have issued off-sale storage policies, but the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
The prices of agricultural and sideline products are low, and the purchasing power of the grassroots is low.
In addition, in recent years, the low-season prices have been high and the high-season prices have frequently dropped, and dealers are now afraid to purchase them hastily.
Most dealers use and purchase as they use, or joint sales with the Federal Reserve Bank of the factory, preferring to make less or not to make money, rather than purchasing in advance.
Guo Wen, manager of Hunan Toyota Agricultural Materials Company, said that he is most worried about high fertilizer production.
The coal market has undergone a major reversal this year and prices have continued to rise.
One of the important reasons is that coal production capacity has been reduced, and coal production capacity and output have both declined.
The low fertilizer prices have eliminated some old small and medium fertilizer plants, but overall, the efforts to reduce production capacity are far from enough.
The current production capacity of chemical fertilizers, or central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises, must be stable, and production at a loss; or a listed company, with sources of funds and equity mortgages, which can provide loans; or a coal-fertilizer integrated enterprise, with coal Resources.
.
.
In the first 8 months of this year, China's fertilizer production fell by 0.
3%, while the export volume of chemical fertilizers is expected to drop by more than 20% throughout the year.
This year, the domestic chemical fertilizer market supplies more than last year, and some chemical fertilizer production may not be digested until next year.
From the perspective of demand, the state vigorously advocates "zero growth" of chemical fertilizers, the use of chemical fertilizers is reduced, coupled with the low prices of agricultural products, farmers are not enthusiastic about planting, and there is a lot of land abandonment.
The demand for chemical fertilizers in individual places may decline by as much as 30%.
In this case, if the fertilizer output remains high, the market will hardly improve substantially.
Guo Wen said: “It’s better to be cautious when storing chemical fertilizers this year.
If you want to store them, don’t store them all at once, but store them in small quantities.
There is a good supply in the market, so don’t be too rushed.
” Jiangxi dealer Yuan Yimin believes that due to the current fertilizer The price is relatively low.
Affected by factors such as rising costs, the price of fertilizers is likely to rise next year, but the increase will not be too great.
Some people believe that the price of urea will rise by 300 yuan next year.
Of course, from the absolute price point, even if the price of urea rises by 300 yuan, the price of urea is not high.
However, the current overall economic environment is weak, and the economic L-shaped trend will continue for a period of time.
It is not realistic to expect the price of urea to rise sharply.
After all, so much urea production capacity is there, and with the commissioning of new international urea plants, China’s urea exports are facing increasing challenges, and the overall market situation is not optimistic.