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Recently, the price of tianjiao has fallen sharply, the macro risks caused by the epidemic in Africa have gradually been released, crude oil has stabilized, the short-term negative fundamentals have been released, and the downward space is insufficient, at the same time, the short-term lack of upward driving power, a small upward repair after a wide range of shocks
.
On the supply side, natural disasters in Southeast Asia are frequent, and it is reported that La Niña will peak from this month to January 2022, another report said that a new type of defoliation disease broke out in the rubber forests of Chanthaburi and Trat Province in Thailand, which affected the rubber tapping rate in many ways, and rubber-producing countries such as Thailand, India, and Malaysia provided policy support to rubber farmers; China's Yunnan production areas began to stop cutting one after another, most of the Hainan production areas stopped cutting at the end of the year, and the decrease in the supply of natural rubber had a supporting effect
on the market.
On the demand side, the data at the end of last month showed that the demand of downstream tire manufacturers rebounded slightly, but the shortage of chips continued to have a continuous impact on automobile production and sales, and China's heavy-duty truck market in November is expected to sell about 50,000 vehicles of various types (invoice caliber), down 6.
5% month-on-month and 63% year-on-year, setting the lowest monthly sales level this year; At the same time, many factors such as cost have led to a number of tire manufacturers intensively issuing price increase notices
.
The global impact of the epidemic especially Omicron has been particularly severe, and the freight industry has been sluggish and the prosperity of the end market has been affected
.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of futures warehouse receipts increased, and the delayed arrival of Qingdao Free Trade Zone did not arrive intensively as expected, and the inventory increased to a certain extent, but it continued to be at a low level
.
In the short term, the supply and demand situation of natural rubber has not changed much, and the overall performance is warm under the influence of the supply of production areas is still blocked and Qingdao inventory continues to be destocked, but the recent Omicron variant virus epidemic has an impact on the market, and the market is worried about the rising sentiment to put pressure on the commodity market, natural rubber is also affected, so it is expected that in the short term, natural rubber will fluctuate and operate, and the fluctuation range may increase due to emotions, and in the medium term, as the production area gradually enters the shutdown period, rubber prices are still expected to run warmly
.
