The Prime Minister's decision to set this year's housing market in support of improved demand has sparked heated debate

China Paint Network
News:
Lantern Festival, as the "two sessions" of the "government work report" (hereinafter referred to as the "report") as scheduled, the report is seen as China's economy and major industries weather. For the real estate concerned, the government's work report also changed the previous tightening, suppressing the tone, clearly showing loose, administrative signals, there are many new mentions: "stabilizing housing consumption", "local policy", "supporting improved housing demand" and so on. So what does this description mean for real estate? In the report, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that in 2015, we should stabilize housing consumption, adhere to classification guidance, implement local government responsibilities, support residents' self-housing and improve housing demand, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Huang Qisen, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and chairman of tai wei Group, told Real Estate China.com: "'Stabilizing housing consumption' is stable, stable, steady, steady, not ups and downs, should be its intention." Chen Huai, director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Construction, believes that this year, under the overall idea of stabilizing housing demand, efforts to support self-housing and improved demand, indicating that the focus of market-oriented demand is shifting, the focus of policy allocation is to support improved demand. Zhang Weiming, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and director of the Center for Urban and Real Estate Of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that in accelerating the cultivation of consumption growth points and integrating stable housing consumption into it, there is a holistic thinking and fundamental thinking, which is not simply due to market regulation, nor is it simply a rescue of the market. "There has been no significant change in regulatory thinking." Beijing Real Estate Association Secretary-General Chen Zhi is more pessimistic, through the stability of housing consumption to achieve healthy and stable development of real estate, first of all to solve the "affordability" problem; "But for now, the problem facing the government is the decline in revenue from the economic downturn and the increase in people's livelihood spending brought about by rising demand for people's livelihood, so I am pessimistic about the new real estate provisions in the government's work report." Chen Zhi said. "The reason for the stability is that the overall performance of real estate is not very good from the data for the first two months of this year." Zhang Wei, chief analyst of Hujie Investment, pointed out that stability means that there are unstable factors, how to stabilize, may also have to look at the "reserve policy", do not rule out there will be "micro-stimulus". The report on speculation in support of improved housing demand also makes it clear that to support improved housing demand, the term "suppressing speculative investment demand" has been removed from previous years. Li Xiaolin, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the Beijing Linda Group, said, "Previous government work reports have all raised the need to curb speculative demand for investment, but this year's government work report no longer mentions curbing real estate, but explicitly put forward support for improved housing, which is a relatively big shift." Zhang believes that this is a more fundamental term, although there is a suspicion of dealing with the market down, but the main thing is to encourage independent demand. He predicted that this would be implemented mainly through measures such as a full reduction in down payments, preferential mortgage rates and tax relief. Yiju China CEO Ding Zuxuan believes that such a statement on the one hand continues the de-administrativeization, adhere to the market-oriented pattern, on the other hand, through the past year's practice, the government recognized that the support for improved demand is also an important grasp to maintain the stability of the real estate market, it can be foreseen that the second-home credit adjustment will be implemented in the short term, which will have a significant short-term boost to the market. Zhang also told Real Estate China.com that to support improved housing demand, it may make corresponding policy adjustments in terms of down payments, easing loans and so on. Niu Fengrui said that although the mention is different, but "support for residents to own and improve the demand for housing" has not changed the nature of home-owning and improved housing demand is the basic needs of the modern real estate market. Niu Fengrui further pointed out that the "suppression of speculative demand for investment" the withdrawal of the term, may be due to the stock of housing more. Speculative investment demand can contribute to rising house prices when prices rise, but when real estate is depressed, it helps to accelerate the return of developers' capital, promote a new round of development, and there is reason to increase the supply of second-hand housing and rental housing market. "Suppressing speculative demand for investment" is not necessary in itself, and the most important thing is to curb the source of funds for speculative demand for investment. Despite this, Zhang also pointed out that although the policy environment may be better than last year, but the inventory pressure is also very large, vigorous inventory is still the housing enterprises this year's top priority.