The probability of aluminum price shock pullback is not too large

At the beginning of the week, Lun aluminum was rebounded by the dollar, and the "hawkish remarks" continued, the market expected a sharp interest rate hike in December, the disk was volatile and pullback, the day fell more than 1%, but with the release of sentiment, and the inventory continued to decrease, Lun aluminum stopped falling and rushed higher, up more than 2%, rose to the high level of the week, and the minutes of the Fed's November meeting showed dovish remarks, the intensity of interest rate hikes in December may have slowed down, and the decline of London aluminum in the middle of the week has slowed down, but there is still strong pressure at the 5-day moving average, and the upward momentum is also obviously insufficient, and it is expected that next week Lun aluminum is still running weakly , or oscillate
around $2320-2420.

In terms of the market, affected by the epidemic, orders from downstream enterprises have decreased, some enterprises have stopped production due to control, market demand is weak, traders' activity in entering the market has also decreased, and market volume has declined
。 East China: The epidemic situation in many places in China is serious, transportation, consumption are affected, coupled with a number of overseas data, the global economic downward trend is becoming more and more obvious, market confidence is insufficient, aluminum prices rose to above 19,000 after the momentum weakened significantly, last week East China spot aluminum prices around 19,000 fluctuations; as of Friday, the price was between 19010-19050 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton, spot premium 70 yuan
.

South China: As of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot with tickets was between 19340-19440 yuan / ton, down 210 yuan / ton from the previous month, and the current price difference between the two places was 360 yuan / ton, remaining stable
.
South China spot market trading performance is average, the trading volume is stable and weak, the fluctuation of spot prices during the week has limited impact on the market, but the frequency of the epidemic may lead to some ingot enterprises to stop work in advance, downstream more early stock preparation, it is expected that the recent South China market inquiry phenomenon will be more common, the previous stocking period or early arrival
.

This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a high downward trend, and the overall volatility was mainly
between 18800-19250.
At the beginning of the week, Shanghai aluminum once rushed to about 19250, but the market is still strong for the Fed's December interest rate hike expectations, and the domestic epidemic is serious again, Shanghai aluminum fell back to the high at the beginning of the week, again fell below the 19,000 mark, several times in the week at this position around the oscillation, but failed to effectively break through, but although there was an adjustment during the period, but due to the impact of low inventory, the disk trend is also relatively firm, and the overall decline is also limited
.
Next week, we will continue to pay attention to whether the 19,000 position can effectively break through, and it is expected that the probability of breakthrough will not be too large
.