The problem of limited supply has not changed Aluminum prices have limited room for correction

Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate weakly
.
At the beginning of the week, the accumulation of aluminum ingot social stocks slowed down, slightly increasing by 10,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Guizhou Power Grid's requirement for local electrolytic aluminum enterprises to stop is questionable
whether it can be fully implemented.
Thermal coal spot resisted the decline, aluminum plant costs are high, the current price has entered the loss range of some aluminum plants, the supply side long-term restrictions make it difficult for the aluminum market to continue to go deep, pay attention to the May high around 20500 support
.

Since the proportion of electrolytic aluminum enterprises' captive power plants is more than 60%, and power generation is mainly coal-fired, the continuous reduction of coal prices has made the cost center of electrolytic aluminum
downward.
In addition, the recent decline in the overall price of industrial products has made the market sentiment pessimistic, and bulls have left the market
.

From the supply side, on the 21st, there was news of production restrictions in Guizhou, this round of production restrictions policy is stricter than before, the local aluminum plant is gradually shutting down, and whether it can achieve all shutdowns remains to be followed
.

On the demand side, the consumption of the real estate sector was not good, the completed area of housing in the month fell month-on-month, and orders for construction aluminum profiles continued to decline
.

Data show that the national electrolytic aluminum social library increased by 11,000 tons from last Thursday to 968,000 tons, and the accumulation range has narrowed
.
In addition, under the influence of the fall in aluminum prices and the loosening of power restrictions, the outbound volume increased by 12,300 tons
.
LME ingot inventories continued to decline, falling to their lowest level in a year and a half
.

Overall, the problem of supply side constraints has not changed, the recent decline in aluminum prices or will stimulate downstream demand, it is expected that the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum will improve, aluminum prices have limited space for correction, and a slight rebound may not be ruled out during the week, and the following attention is paid to the 21000 support level
.